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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Good morning.

 

All the talk is about stocks and yesterday's sell off. Japan still nervous and off another 4.00% today. We have our overnight session slightly higher so maybe we build some strength going into our New York open.

 

Corn slightly better by .25, beans steady to better and wheat off 1.

 

Still kind of quiet on the agricultural front until we get some acreage talk and planting weather chatter.

 

The world is still reeling from the slide yesterday in equities. Year to date, which is only one month old the Dow is down 7.00% and the S and P is down 5.00%. Not disastrous but it has those that were comfortably long, uncomfortably numb.

 

The 10 year is at 2.60% and briefly traded as low as 2.58% and I think it is trying to tell us that everything is not all right with the US economy.

 

Gold is relatively flat at $1253.84 down $3.83 and oil is laying there up .02 cents at $96.45.

 

The world is a flutter with our Fed and taper talk. I have said it before and I will say it again, we will taper the Fed's QE purchases but not because the economy is strong but because it is a failed economic policy. We will introduce some other stimulus this year that I think will ultimately be good for stocks but it will be a bloody and bruising ride.

14 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Heard an economist say that a 1,000 point correction in the Stock Market is healthy. 

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Morning Scott ! Just wonderng - IF the big down turn in the Argy . Econ. is affecting the markets some what - All we heard was how much trouble that Turkey was in - yet -  I only have seen what was e-mailed to me - and not much on the national type news ? Sounds worse down South .

 

Have a good day

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

 ""  stag - flation ""  just keeps hanging around and all the experts where talking 3+  on the 10 year    

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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Right now the only thing affecting our markets is a cheaper board and the threat of unsold corn hitting the market. We look better to overseas buyers ( at the moment) but the overhang here has some guys nervous. As far as international issues it WILL have an effect but not just yet....this is a 6-12 month story...

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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

those guys all got out in front of the inflation trade with the first rounds of QE....dollars on the market means inflation which means I must buy gold at $1900....NOT. ouch. Everything out there is telling us that QE is anything BUT inflationary because the system is still broken.

 

5% of the people own 86% of stocks.

 

20% of people pay 86% of the total tax burden.

 

We have a few issues to work out here.

bigrock4076903
Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

definitely issues to work out - the 5% need to pay more.

 

too much wealth concentration in all aspects of our society.  worst thing there is for a society. 

 

no easy answers though. 

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Wealth concentration is also the result of a cycle of dependency over several generations.

More and more people get trapped in a life of barely getting by or falling further and further behind.

The best intentions of well meaning people that ignore certain aspects of human nature.

Pontification over.

 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

poam.gif

 

There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation.One is by the sword.The other is by debt.John Adams 1826
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.A. Lincoln
When injustice becomes law, then resistance becomes duty.T.Jefferson

bigrock4076903
Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 4th

Didn't say i supported welfare or debt.

 

I said we need more taxes on the rich.   That money should be used on infrastructure development and reducing deficit. 

 

I abhor welfare as much as you Hobby - but I also abhor the lack of taxes on the rich.

 

I know a person who makes in excess of 4 Million a year taxed at 15% - thats not right to be taxed that low.

 

Try to tell me wealth concentration is a good thing.  It aint.

 

The wealthy want good roads and police protection yet don't want to pay for it; just as bad as welfare. 

 

There are no easy answers - but cutting welfare eligibility, particularly Social Security Disability, and raising the taxes on the rich are a good starting point.

 

Taxes are a necessary evil; dependency is an unnecessary evil. 

 

The injustice here is wealth concentration. 

 

Do you think that the bottom 80% of our society who control only 7% of the wealth are all stupid and lazy?

 

Lack of real opportunity has more to do with it than lack of ambition. 

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