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Senior Contributor

OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Good morning. 

 

Today will be important as the Fed decides what to do with QE and the taper. 

 

Beans slightly lower this morning, corn down 1 and wheat down 2. 

 

Overnight corn fell for the first time in 7 days on improving weather. The trading community is still very long the Mar 430 and 435 straddles and these slow grinds higher and slow grinds lower absolutely do not help. It hasn't helped that MacQuarie Bank has said it is 'highly likely' that we will have another record corn crop. 

 

The only outlier now is that Chinese which is why it is important the we keep a keen eye on how well their economy is doing. 

 

The Emerging Markets got a boost yesterday with Turkey raising their interest rate significantly to defend their currency. It is a short term solution and will not work. I lived through a similar situation trading short sterling in London in 1992 when the Brits raised rates to 10%, then 12% and ultimately 15% in ONE day to defend the pound against the Deutschmark. It failed as the citizens of the UK could not afford their homes with rates that high. They quickly reversed paths, cut rates dramatically and spurred on growth that continues today. 

 

God is up $3.15 to $1260.03 and oil is slightly lower at $97.27 down .14 cents. 

 

Stocks are lower as we go into the Fed meeting for a second day .Don't forget , non-farm payroll is around the corner next Friday. 

 

 

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13 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Corn fell for the first time in 7 days due to improving weather.       Alrighty, I guess I'll get my planter ready.  And.....Macquarie bank is giving crop conditions reports now?     Where do you guys get this stuff?

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Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Believe you me....corn has been on a 'slow grind higher' but definitely not tearing the cover off the ball. I want to see it at $8.00. Benefits my family as well.

 

The news is on the agricultural tickers this morning, just passing along why you may see certain moves in the grain market. 

 

The real story here is that ADM has been selling th 'you know what' out of straddles in corn. 

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

"God is up $3.15 to $1260.03"

 

 

Do you recommend puts or calls on God?

 

LOL.

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Thanks Scott,

 

I was wondering how God was doing.

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Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Good catch! If you saw the size of my fingers you'd be surprised it doesn't happen more ofter!!

 

I recommend buying straddles on God. 

Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

So ADM is expecting less movement in Corn?

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Have beenj seeing trucks out and about here AND the basis dropped 11 cents the last two days. We are -11 on cash corn right now.

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Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

Us dollar dropping your basis hobby. Mines going up in Canada
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Veteran Contributor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 29th

We just know who to blame if there is a massive offer on options IE one with an extra zero that causes a limit move...

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