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Senior Contributor

OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Jan 31st

Good morning.


Grains quiet overnight and that has been pretty much the story all week.


Corn down slightly, beans steady easier and wheat up 3. The bright spot is that corn could be set for its first monthly gain since August. That is as positive as I can get right now.


The story of the week will be the story for awhile. The Fed and its decision to taper while the emerging markets around the world are imploding. Today we wake up to more of the same as our equity market is lower and our bond prices higher as we see an exit from risk and a flight to safety.


The 10 year yield sits at 2.65%. Remember all those that were calling for 3.00 to 3.50%? They got out in front of it a little too much just like they thought QE was going to be inflationary and they bought gold up to $1900. This morning it is $1248.40 up $4.48. Oh well. There are 7 more meetings for the Fed this year and we have a non farm payroll number 11 more times. Those will be the biggest two inputs for the year.


Oil is $97.37 down .86 cents.


Interesting to note how volatile the Nat Gas market is. I was asked to get a quote in a fairly common option and after 30 minutes of calling all over the world I could not get a quote. First time that has ever happened to me in 26 years. I guess this is the new paradigm.