Out of Corn?

[jennys_mn]

Interesting chat with my relation down in Evansville, WI.  He's going to go out and try to combine some corn.  It's still at 26% moisture, but the elevator has a train load to fill this week.  They are offering an addtional 35 cents premium AND offering to pay 1/2 of the drying costs until Thursday of next week.    

I'm hearing more and more reports of corn being sub par - by a lot - here in MN.  WI, IA, NE all starting to tell of the issues this summer.  ECIN, your +20 bu/ac are going to have to stretch a long ways to cover the 40 to 50 bu under average, or less, that I'm beginning to hear.   This harvest isn't over - the problem areas are just beginning to get started.  

I did a littl looking at this hugh corn crop in MD and it's potential impact nationwide.  The trade loves to discount WI as a non-relevant area when it comes to corn production, yet was pushing the huge crop MD was wxpecting this year.  MD this year is expected to produce less than 1/2 of 1% (.00494) of the total corn production of the US.   WI planted more than 7.5 times the corn that Maryland did.  Wi this year had 150,000 that had intended to be planted to corn for grain, and didn't get planted due to the weather.  That's over 1/3 of MD's total acres.

Oh yes, the bears pulled out all the stops to take this market as low as they could this year.  Most of what we were presented was a crock of sh.., and when you really start to evaluate what was being fed to us, it stunk then, and stinks worse now.  

BIN, LOCK.  VACATION TIME!!!

Jen

[Hobbyfarmer]

Oh contrair Jen. Md's crop is very meaningful so is Georgia's and Miss.

Iowa, Minn, Wis, western Ne, and of course western Ks is insignificant.

We need all the "growers" all to believe it is an over and done game.

Has been since the first USDFA report last winter.

Get that corn in the pipeline and used up, shipped, gone out of here.

Give all the end users a bargain. Keep them wanting to be end users.

Keep the prices down, it just kills the fringe areas INCLUDING Brazil and Argy.

From over producing on 1000 mile + areas from a port or end user.

Earlier this week there was an internet auction and on it were 4 trucks from a farmer in Mn

that had been repo'ed. Kind of looked like his low hanging fruit was being picked.

I'm thinking $4 - $4.50 corn might just keep some of the last few years foolishness in check.

Prices can not go up till at least 75% of crop is out of the producers control.

My bet is that more than that % of this years crop in many areas is needed to make pmts that are due. They might have a hard time welding the doors shut whith their electricity shut off and the vacation will be taken on the back fourty, or in the bankers and lawyers offices.

[sw363535]

Jenn,

A piece of data I read this year and can't forget ---------- 12+ billion bushels of on farm storage in the US and in the midwest nearly empty.  Beans and wheat weren't taking up much room going into fall harvest.  With a good income year for those who raised crop in 2012.  The beginning of thiis harvest has been going right into the consumption----- (pent up consumption that sucks corn up river)  with bonuses and moisture deals.  With all that room available, I have to wonder if a lot of this crop goes into storage for movement in 2014,  when does this big crop actually come into an "available" position?

[Hobbyfarmer]

IT IS AVAILABLE NOW.

This is from Cargill, Eddyville  (Ray Jenkins) yesterday

"LOGISTICS UPDATE---- Dumped about 240 trucks on Thursday and looks like 340+ today, and probably 250+ on Saturday this week.

As we have written about this week, the percentage of dry corn is so low, that attempting to split it off would back up wet corn to 2+ hour lines, possibly longer.

So, our only choice is to dump all corn together and then severely reduce hours as we build wet corn inventories.

We can dump good volumes of wet corn on Monday and Tuesday, then need to run a short day on Wednesday and another one on Thursday so we can dump good volumes again Friday and Saturday.

I don’t know how long this cycle will last, but it could be that way for several weeks in a year with good corn yields and very little dry corn available.

** Our goal is to dump as much corn as possible, and this appears to be the best solution for now."

This from this mornings update...

"We are asking folks to be here by 10AM this morning to ensure they can be dumped in a reasonable amount of time

If you come after 10AM,  you may be in a situation of waiting several hours if our space fills completely and then can only unload what the plant is using, which is about 10 trucks per hour

Cargill-Eddyville"

[jennys_mn]

We have been stealing the new crop to make up for short falls in the old crop for a few years now.   I think this kicking the can down the road is maybe more of a problem than we realize.  We keep stealing new crop to bolster supplies of old crop.  On the hope that some new crop is going to be so huge that the shortfall created is elimnated and we  can cover the shortfall with no one noticing.  How much new crop this year went to replentish supplies and shortfalls from last years crop?   And how much new crop do we actually have available for sale at bargain prices?  Maybe in this new environment where if we run out, we run out mentality, it doesn't matter.  That, of course, is the latest and greatest price control being forced on us.  Supply and demand no longer seem to matter.  We'll see where this all leads in the next few years if we really do have Peak Production along numerous fronts.  Oh, but maybe we can start growing production corn in Hawaii instead of just seed production, and with new land being created there all the time, MY GOD! - it could be a production bonanza;)

Jen

[sw363535]

All due respect for Ray J.   This last six months he has lived his side of the drought.  

And we may be a few more months getting through the stress of replenishing a pipeline with air in it.

Maybe years -----------

[Hobbyfarmer]

New productive land that has NEVER raised anything but beef or milk since the Indians were run off.

Yesterday's pictures ...

Don't know if it will be done in time for next years crops but almost fourty acres more of Iowa's finest Nodaway and Colo silt farmland will be added to the Hobbyfarm (85 and 80% Crop Suitability Ratings) These are NOT fringe acres. Not marginal lands. The good stuff.

My "little one" knocking over the little ones

Just so you all don't think I am not serious about it here is the other one that is working in the tree patch too.

In a few days there will be my 61000# excavator in there too.

[Shaggy98]

Your probably one of the few with those in their equipment fleet.

[Hobbyfarmer]

The Deere isn't mine

[KKdairy]

Jen,

I have read your comments for most of the summer, please take into consideration the yields that are being reported on both fronts. The "devil" as you call it, industry leader Land O Lakes and Cargill have been reporting "better than expected yields thought the early harvest, along with every other marketing firm. I'm not sure why you are do bullish on the market but I would assume it has a lot to do with your marketing decisions, in the end there needs to be a realization of the cash market bulls that the Cargills, ADM's and like business control the market and in the end there is nothing you or anyone else can do about it . The corn is there the beans are good to average, we will harvest somewhere close to 14 bil crop. Move on, lick your wounds and accept it. As you put it there in control, there's nothing that's going to change that, until you or the other bulls have the ability to influence 3-4 billion bushels of grain marketed we enjoy your input but it's irrelevant in the big picture. Life's a b.......