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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Overnights are back to watching harvest.

Oct 17................ overnites are up 3.5 and 7 ........... after a couple days of breathing deep......

The one thing that bothers me most....... I have never seen a fall harvest so weather beaten everywhere in the corn belt and fringe.... it is a rare occurrence.

Usda continues to basically ignore it....... so I'm kind of proud of the guy who ran them out of his field during the crop tour, which did heavily dispute their propaganda.  They weren't there to learn anything anyway.  basically a publicity stunt and no one found the farmer to interview... or get help for.  It looked a lot like an attempt to save government carreer employees the embarrassment of moving to the midwest.

So the one thing that is bothering me most........ we know we have a problem and so far we have seen possibly 80 cents up in the bean market and maybe 35 cents in corn..... over 50 days........  Not one day even thinking about limit up..  

While China continues to sell off inventory of corn,   while they continue to buy beans at the same rates as previous years.  

This year will be as big as 2012 nation wide for both beans and corn as far as production losses. (nothing has proven that not to be true so far)  Brazil corn has been carrying the east coast livestock feeding for some time now.  Yet we will feel lucky to get $10 beans and $4.50 corn.... 

How can a year be this bad and this be true ----when we know what a wreck this harvest is going to be -- it won't end until planting season 2020.  If  there is going to be China purchases.... we sure are making it easy on them.   

My fear is this upward trend is just happening to help those congressional family crop insurance companies save some $$$.  Save usda from having to pay the other half of the MFP program they didn't support.  (While they drag their feet on paying the first half).  

Have a good morning overnites are green until we go to work.

20 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

sw...you might really want to reconsider your crop size conclusions. This is not 2012. No area has terrible crops. Only a very few have great crops. But isn't even close to 2012. Crop yield is probably very close, the corn arcres are 3 mil harvested too high, but yield isn't.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

SW, most of your posts are good. This one was great.

 

Time, if you consider that all the prevent plant acres are going to yield a big fat ZERO, when added to the planted acres, you might come out closer to 2012s yields than you thought.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

I`ll give you an honest assessment of the NCIA crop the 50`s caught most of the beans yields and about 50% finished.  Corn is getting a going yields 220s moist low 20%s.  In my travels I`ve seen much worse looking areas, I have not seen really any better areas than here.   I think late planted corn will have test weight issues that the market isn`t going to completely realized until it`s delivered and maybe turned away next June.  

Until then "step right up rubes and keep your eye on the pea under the shell and win a stuffed animal!"  .  

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

Time,  you can't allow usda to keep the best possible planting acres and adjust yield like the pp acres didn't exist.  But it really doesn't matter... it is just a carnival side show to stabblize the prices, and maintain a weekly and daily variance of volatility to continually generate $$ for supporters.  Otherwise price would be on a semi yearly adjustment and the funds traders would not generate money daily.

We live in a day when crop yields and acres can be known in real "time".... Why do we maintain this archaic system???

To save voter/gman jobs..... 

So we can scam the system .....

?????

illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

BA your wrong with your assumptions.  First crops I opened was this week. Soybeans 18% 37 bu corn under 160 34%  . I have spoken with many farmers in the area I’m on the good and dry side.  It’s just plain ugly out there.  1000’s of pp aces up here and the ones that attempted to plant we will definitely be regretting it.  2012 is the only close comparison I can think of  as well.  However the market valuation is half price.?  In 2012 I sold corn for 7.50$. And soybeans for 17$

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

another clue to this crop......  our first freeze went from 90 to sub 20 degrees and sat  for three   hours..  

Almost every crop that faces a first freeze gains moisture for a couple of days then begins the dry down process.

(granted we have been dry for a couple of months)

This crop just kept getting dryer...... We harvested every day through the cold and every day got dryer...... 

There was nothing normal about the killing freeze.  It just died.  beans or corn.  corn at 14 moisture and test weights not getting better.... passable at 55-7  but would be historically 61-2   --(irrigated not lacking for water)  

 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

Interesting  -  East  Coast  feed  supply  -   -    -

  NO   duties  on  imported  feed  commodities  -  ?

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

One  market ,   of  over  weight  supply ,   U  L  M ,   record  supply   -  -  - 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Overnights are back to watching harvest.

Well.....

probably would have 5 & 12 but for the trade debacle and a made up on the go farm program that incentivized planting 5-10 million acres.

Just have to decide if the Stormy Payoff was enough compensation.

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