Re: Palouser on Wheat
I never give marketing advice. Having said that I'll tell you where I think we are.
I think wheat is truly in limbo at this point with little of the corn and bean crop in. This year needs a resolution for direction. It could decline from here - or not.
I think hi protein wheat is short and lower protein relatively plentiful. China did us a favor by pulling SRW stocks down this summer. They have imported 6 million tns this summer and will import much more. It will be all classes but SRW will be a good chunk.
Russia and Ukraine's situations haven't resolved either. Harvest drags on for them in the rain and quality from start to finish has been lower than usual. We apparently are not to the point of being able to tell w/ certainty what the final wheat crop will be but they are missing forecasts so far. Russia wants to buy a significant quantity to rebuild reserves which will cut their ability to export. That number is said to be 6 million tns for the reserve. There is talk the FSU may have reduced acres planted this fall due to high rainfall. I'd discount this except I'm facing similar circumstances on my own farm for the first time ever. It can happen. There are some reports that the late harvest in the Delta area is going to restrict some winter wheat planting if harvest doesn't speed up and it doesn't dry up.
One of the more burdensome global supplies of soft wheat is INdia. Because of high internal prices to encourage domestic productiojn, poor export minimum prices demanded and changes in food policy, they can't export - even though their stocks of grain will have to be stored under tarps as they've run out of places to put it. Usually any export wheat is of tyhe poorest quality and goes for feed in other than desperate countries.
My current question is how far along is the Canadian harvest? They have a big wheat crop, though lower protein levels than usual. We in the PNW are increasingly pinned down by the poorest weather I've ever experienced in the fall and it goes over our head to somewhere inland.
This is the largest global crop in history, but that statement doesn't adequately address the wheat that will be part of the global trade.
When it comes to sales (or not selling) I always figure I'm making the best decision with the information at hand and never look back. In the absence of a clear direction or trend a partial sale is seldom a mistake.