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Senior Advisor

Peak Price -- Not Corn

Over the winter - how many times has peak corn been posted up here ?? But unless I have missed it - haven't seen much of peak price .

I was lucky -- i think ---to get some corn in the ground , then the rain is back - so get to ride the mower alot = thinking time - .

But thinking about the facts - we very well may have topped out for many years to come , With a near record short crop in both corn and beans - and look at the prices today ? Basis tell's the story - we are all but out of both , yet the corn market keeps going down - and my friends - I think it wil keep of going down .

If you look at exports -- they are non existence , look at South Korea and all the others -- they don't need us at all , then look at S.A. crop -- can you say bumper crop . Look at the south east coast -- importing corn --  to feed for 25 a ton less than mine . Dairy farms feeding wheat or what ever is cheapest . Cattle numbers down =less feed = some of this is from the western drought and no pastures , but it still counts , Planting delays ? no big deal !! we will get most of  the crop in --------------- sometime , see it really don't matter , we can lose alot of acres and still have plenty of corn .

I read yesterday that the S.A. corn will start being shipped around the same time we start this fall = big problems , and the end users will do everything to Strech corn till the new crop price kicks in ( CU - CV ) and bang there go's --what ? 30 40 cents or more ? 

As we get deeper into planting season - the ground will or should warm up ,the corn will jump up in a weeks time instead of laying there for 2 or 3 weeks , and will never look back , may not be a record - but as I said , it don't need be .

Now if we look back in time, how did we get to 7 or 8 dollar corn ? It was not all ethanol - it was a near perfect type storm , it was a world problem then throw in our problems -- thats how and looking forward -- as we get back to - --- lets say more normal then what happens ?? we have corn comeing out our ears , not only here but around the world -- look at S.A. -- with there corn -- we don't even need to raise one acre here .

It may not be this year or fall - but the time is comeing of a major price break = down ,down , down .

case in point here -- have you Old Pro's sold more 7 dollar corn OR 2.75 or lower corn ??  I hate to say --but I fall into the group of 2.75 .

It was nice while it lasted - but the New normal price 7 - 8 is all but done and were headed back to the old normal .

 

Out with the new and back with the old -- can you say peak price --  bye bye .

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13 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

Your right   We are running full speed now, the exception is there is a brick wall coming up and we don't see it.

I think corn has a bottom around $4 futures. UNLESS we get into some major despression type situation.   We still have a 1/3 of the crop that goes to ethanol.  

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Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

ECI - come on!  You know this party is never going to end . . . we have created a new level for corn it will never go below $4.50, yields will never drop below 200 bu. an acre, land rent is reasonable at $400-$500 an acre, N is cheap at 70 cents a pound, and hell we know that P&K is really worth applying . . . why because our Agronomist who works for the Co-op tells us it is.  I mean . . . you have to continue to feed a corn crop worth $4 the same as you feed it when it is worth $7, isn't that what is broadcast on this site every single day. 

 

I really think you are too pessimistic today, you need to contact Db and have him ship you an overnight shipment  of Db's superlube . . . not for you . . . but for the bankers who were dumb enough to loan all the inputs and land rents plus living expenses to the BTO's that they love dining with at the country club.  Because come fall, you may experience a windfall, because I believe Db's factory will be running full blast this fall. 

 

We all know that if corn goes to $4 or even $3 input prices will follow the prices down so that farmers (cough . . . cough) I mean growers will still maintain the same margins, I mean who is really going to need those direct payments, they will still be able to buy that new pickup, pay the country club dues and green fees and maintain their image of success as they continue to live on borrowed money.

 

I think you need to Michigan, I understand the trout are biting in the tributaries feeding lake Huron.   I mean . . . land is worth $10,000 an acre, ask the professors at the University of Illilnois, who crawled out from under the rock last week on this site.   I mean . . . everyone should be going all in to buy this ground that they will never make anymore of . . . just ask the broadcasters from Wall Street pushing Iowa land on bloomberg this morning. 

 

No doubt about it . . . if your negative attitude continues . . . I might be able to book you a room in the psychiatric ward here in the rural backwater, before they are all taken up by the Bankers who never lived through the 80's (they are all dead) and believe what has existed the past five years in agriculture was the "New Normal".  

 

Pass the popcorn and get me another Corona.  John

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

I have a question. Who can raise 4 dollar corn or less and stay in business longer? SA or NA.
Honored Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

The short answer is SA

 

There is no reason to think they will not make it better than us as we have more costs than they do.

 

They made it through no decent infrastructure to be the largest producer of Soys. They still have MILLIONS of acres they can develop. Absolutely NO reason to believe they can't do it with corn too.

 

If I was in My 40's I believe I would buy a plane ticket to Paraguay and have a looksy around.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

yup,

looks like a straight downtrend into August....Oh well.

 

+46 K/N----wow

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Honored Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

There are near term problems with supply that can only be solved by demand destruction, increasing price to shake loose 70% of the remaining bu, and or importation of someone else's bushels.

 

Started raining here a little bit ago, where is wrestler I need him to show me how it's all going to be done in the next few days here in Ioway.

 

The corn price is hovering right in the $7 + or- a little. That has proven to NOT be TOO HIGH. local basis +62 july

 

If one of the end users out there wants a dozen or so loads of corn  just PM me an offer of $7.50 fob South Podunk Country and I'll load. Offer expires soon.

 

I can also help some bean end user too. Just PM me we'll talk. $14.86 local price right now 11:40am

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

The more I hear you all talk, the more I have reason to hope.  

 

A couple of things come to mid as I look over all these negative posts:

 

      1.  It is always the most bearish at the bottom, and the most bullish near a top.  Things have been bearish for a long time.  Last

            year at this time I remember all the talk of $3.00 corn - and how many of us sold into that rehtoric.  The answer is too many.  

            And here we are again.  The sky is falling.  Heck, someone even posted (an Advisor) that the cooler than normal temps for

            the month of June were bearish for corn.  WHAT!!!????  We're late planting, and the cool temps are bearish.  Right.  It's

            always the most bearish at the bottom.

 

      2.  Go ahead - Import cron, beans.  They may get to the southeast US, but what about the rest of the country.  A few loads of

            whatever on the east coast is so trivial that it is not worth mentioning.  But - again - watch out - here comes crops from

             somewhere else.  Good luck with that.   Getting crop into the midwest where we need it would be a very costly affair.  Again,

            it's always most bearish at the bottom.

 

       3.   Most farmers are aware that the prices don't go up until most of the physical crop is out of the farmers hands.  My personal

              feeling is that a lot of farmers are tired of selling thier crops because they have listened to all this bearish rehtoric, and are

              willing to wait it out.  Let's see who blinks first.  

Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

Smiley Wink

 

--was being facseescious here or however you spell that word.

 

ECIN--- any ideas?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

Genny - I was just stateing the facts -- i for one did not buy into any of the BS that was going on the last few years , And it will be a wait and see game here again , It may be a bust again --then maybe not - good info go's a long way .

But to believe that the golden goose will keep laying is -- well I better not say .

 

BTW good post .

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