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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

The more I hear you all talk, the more I have reason to hope.  

 

A couple of things come to mid as I look over all these negative posts:

 

      1.  It is always the most bearish at the bottom, and the most bullish near a top.  Things have been bearish for a long time.  Last

            year at this time I remember all the talk of $3.00 corn - and how many of us sold into that rehtoric.  The answer is too many.  

            And here we are again.  The sky is falling.  Heck, someone even posted (an Advisor) that the cooler than normal temps for

            the month of June were bearish for corn.  WHAT!!!????  We're late planting, and the cool temps are bearish.  Right.  It's

            always the most bearish at the bottom.

 

Jenny the best crop I have ever raised was with cooler temps in the summer -- yes we are late - but not bad yet - for here -- but getting there -- Let ask you -- What will yild more ? A Hot summer with little rain of cool and wet ? - I'll go with the cool for me everytime -- thats what my dryer is for .

 

      2.  Go ahead - Import cron, beans.  They may get to the southeast US, but what about the rest of the country.  A few loads of

            whatever on the east coast is so trivial that it is not worth mentioning.  But - again - watch out - here comes crops from

             somewhere else.  Good luck with that.   Getting crop into the midwest where we need it would be a very costly affair.  Again,

            it's always most bearish at the bottom.

 

Jenny --- I live near Morristoown IN -- The Bunge Plant here ---Last fall -- shipped corn UP the Mississippi to Cincinnati --Then rail to here -- it can be done .

 

You are fooling yourself if you think the east coast i trivial -- take the time and see how many BIG time operations are there -  Chicken - Hogs - Turkeys --  They can buy 25 a m ton cheaper from S.A. thn us -- Most of our corn went there -- NOT today . Zero !

 

       3.   Most farmers are aware that the prices don't go up until most of the physical crop is out of the farmers hands.  My personal

              feeling is that a lot of farmers are tired of selling thier crops because they have listened to all this bearish rehtoric, and are

              willing to wait it out.  Let's see who blinks first

 

I could not anwser how many may have sold -- because of BAD info from the services out there , But the info has and will be out there to make soild desisions with out the pros help !

 

The point is that the trade use's the USDA's number's , period -- they ( the USDA ) has said that this is what's out there - belive it or not , and thats what the trade do's - I would like to be like you and ( hope ) for the best , but in real life -- the writing is on the wall .

 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

Don't forget about them GDD's, ECIN!--------need some heat!!!

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

The more I hear you all talk, the more I have reason to hope.  

 

A couple of things come to mid as I look over all these negative posts:

 

      1.  It is always the most bearish at the bottom, and the most bullish near a top.  Things have been bearish for a long time.  Last

            year at this time I remember all the talk of $3.00 corn - and how many of us sold into that rehtoric.  The answer is too many.  

            And here we are again.  The sky is falling.  Heck, someone even posted (an Advisor) that the cooler than normal temps for

            the month of June were bearish for corn.  WHAT!!!????  We're late planting, and the cool temps are bearish.  Right.  It's

            always the most bearish at the bottom.

 

Jenny the best crop I have ever raised was with cooler temps in the summer -- yes we are late - but not bad yet - for here -- but getting there -- Let ask you -- What will yild more ? A Hot summer with little rain of cool and wet ? - I'll go with the cool for me everytime -- thats what my dryer is for .

 

That's your backyard, I give you that.  I am from MN and farm in Central WI (oh - I forgot, we don't count) where GDD is the whole ball game.  Your cooler than normal temperatures for the growing season mean that we may not get a crop - let alone drying it.  We dry it every year.  We don't get a chance to bin much, if any corn.  I'm not concerned about heat units for us this year  - the sun hasn't flipped it's poles yet, still waiting for solar maximus to occur.  It going to be another hot, and I think dry summer.  These rain systems still look like last year - unorganized, more like hurricanes with bands of precip rotating around a low pressure system.  Even when we get a strong cold front, it doesn't produce the line of thunderstorms from Canada to the Gulf like it used to - and hasn't for 7 - 8 years now.  I don't see where the weather patterns have changed.  The rain now is simply due to the change of seasons.  Summer will be hot - and dry.

 

      2.  Go ahead - Import cron, beans.  They may get to the southeast US, but what about the rest of the country.  A few loads of

            whatever on the east coast is so trivial that it is not worth mentioning.  But - again - watch out - here comes crops from

             somewhere else.  Good luck with that.   Getting crop into the midwest where we need it would be a very costly affair.  Again,

            it's always most bearish at the bottom.

 

Jenny --- I live near Morristoown IN -- The Bunge Plant here ---Last fall -- shipped corn UP the Mississippi to Cincinnati --Then rail to here -- it can be done .

 

You are fooling yourself if you think the east coast i trivial -- take the time and see how many BIG time operations are there -  Chicken - Hogs - Turkeys --  They can buy 25 a m ton cheaper from S.A. thn us -- Most of our corn went there -- NOT today . Zero !

 

Most anything CAN be done - the question is can it be done economically, what kind of quality do you have by the time you get it.  Was it done once, to prove a point, has it been done since?  It's a long way from the farms of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to the southeast production plants.  It may be cheaper for them to get supplies from SA.  But going up the Mississippi to replentish stocks in the central US - right - how many boatloads, and how many boatloads can our importers handle that are used to loading out?  Tose of us that have a little of corn and beans in our bins are in great shape financially.  We don't need to sell it right now.  For the reasons I mentioned above, I am willing to wait it out.  It's that simple. The prices may go lower.  But we have a long, long growing season ahead.  A lot can and will happen between now and harvest.  Again, I remember last year and how absolutly BEARISH is was that we were planted early.  OH MY!  We're going to beat the heat of summer pollination this year - we must take prices down.  That didn't work out so well.  Where's the opposite this year?  Musch of the pollination will occur during the heat of the summer.  170 BPA - in a pigs eye. WILL NOT HAPPEN.  Not this year.  I hope the price does go lower tomorrow.  It will create more sales of the little product that we have left.  Our market no longer seems to be in an environment where it is supply and demand.  It seems to be more governed by who has the money to dictate the market moves.  Maybe we farmers need to once again find a better way to market our grain on a platform the is real and quit lining the pockets of a few that grow wealthy on the back of the American Farmer.

 

 

       3.   Most farmers are aware that the prices don't go up until most of the physical crop is out of the farmers hands.  My personal

              feeling is that a lot of farmers are tired of selling thier crops because they have listened to all this bearish rehtoric, and are

              willing to wait it out.  Let's see who blinks first

 

I could not anwser how many may have sold -- because of BAD info from the services out there , But the info has and will be out there to make soild desisions with out the pros help !

 

The point is that the trade use's the USDA's number's , period -- they ( the USDA ) has said that this is what's out there - belive it or not , and thats what the trade do's - I would like to be like you and ( hope ) for the best , but in real life -- the writing is on the wall .

 

My hope is based on the truth's that I know.  Last years crop is very short.  We are at solar max and will be bombarded by a huge amount of extra radiation from the sun daily.  Weather patterns are not what they were even 7-8 years ago.  They have changed.  We farmers know that.  We live it every day of our lives.  I for one am tired of the perpetual bombardment of msi-information the the market throws at us in an attempt to manipulate us farmers into selling a crop for less than it's true worth, that no one is ever held accoutable for.  Sure there is bearish stuff out there.  Publish it - thats fine.  But how about the other side.   Let's look at the weather map tonoight.  A nice cold front extending from SE Iowa to Texas.  Where's the rain?  Where's the thunderstorm development?  This is SPRING!!!!  Thunderstorms should be rampant.  And this is the best a cold fromt can do?  Wait till summer begins in earnest.. iwas in Oklahona last spring.  Reservoirs were full.  Plants were as lush as I had ever seen them.  They were saying, "It's the end of the drought!!!  HOORAY!"  Corn was being planted March 1st (harvested in Sept), the wheat the third week of March was Beautiful, Waist high, and Heading out (harvested mid May) The canola was all headed out and beautiful.  When I went back in July, the fires had just begun.  the reservoirs dried up to the point the the sailboats in the marina in Oklahoma City were sitting in mud (where they were still sitting this spring by the way).  

 

My judgement is built on much more that hope.  It is built on what I see, hear and know.  Not the BS that is put out anymore by the powers that be.  I am proud to be an American Farmer.  And I am tired of supporting those who would make a lot of money off of my investment, my toil, and my sweat.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Peak Price -- Not Corn

Additionally to the post above, I don't have a problem with a farmer getting a supply of whatever if they can get it cheaper.  The problem is that these single event things that happen (like bringing crop up the Mississippi) are done to show exactly what you said - that it can be done.  A one time event proves nothing.  Other than the fact that it can be done.  I don't hear of boatload after boatload of grain heading up the Mississippi for our processing plants in Minnesota.  Nor do I see them.  The way that I see it is these instances are made a big deal of in an effort to keep the price of our commodities leaving the farmyard as low as possible.  When we have ships lined up and waiting to unload at multiple ports and actually see proof that these ships exist, then I might worry.  

 

It's like the cancellations of corn and beans to China.  Very few question the specifics of what this trade involved, who made them, who is reporting them, etc.  These things are said with no supporting evidence.  "It's on the internet or on the Ag sites, it must be true."  Maybe its time that we as farmers DEMAND more disclosure as it relates to stories that are put out for dissemination.  Not just that we as a country sold corn and beans, but who sold it, how much and to who.  So that when these so called cancellations occur, we can see if it is always the same company that comes with these cancellations.  Then we can begin to draw a parallell between a sale that was really a sale, and a paper sale that was a sale meant to cancel at a later date, so it can be brought out at just the right time and say, "See - China no longer wants our feedstuffs."

 

We must begin to demand more as Farmers.  Let's get the hear-say stopped.  We need to hold people and companies accountable for putting out BS that moves our markets, usually at the expense of us farmers, while they sit back, laugh and gloat about how much money they made today.  They need us more than we need them.  In this age of information, we need to demand more of those that drive our markets and set our prices.  If our futures trade is no longer an avenue of price discovery and more and more one of the manipulation of prices to serve the needs of the few, then mabe it's time we come up with a different system.

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