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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Perdue unsure, I thought the MFP payments were to compensate for the past year's losses.

Perdue unsure when the third payment will hit the mailboxes, and yet, he thinks it won't be until fall before we see the full benefit of  Phase One.  He's right about the fall, we've clearly missed the soybean market window, China's Brazilian soybean buy season is already in full swing with 10 cargoes bought just last week.  In all likelihood, the Chinese won't be back to buy US beans until early Oct. and that's next year's crop.  What about this year's crop still in the bin.  Perdue's got the cart before the horse here.

  The last I checked, today, soybean basis in North Dakota was still -$1.25, twice the normal basis which still makes soybeans $8 there. I think they should wait until the Chinese actually meet the terms of Phase One and start to buy before they call the crisis over, situation resolved.

  It sure looks like trump is trying to chisel the farmers out of the last 25% of what he promised 9 months ago.  But he's been known to do that before so I guess it's not to be unexpected.   Trump must think farmers were born yesterday.

20 Replies
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: And as far as Phase Two goes, .....

And as far as Phase Two goes, the Chinese have made it quite plain that they're in no hurry to talk about that.

  The Asian press is saying that Xi made it quite clear when he refused to come to the US to sign and refused even invite trump to China despite Trump's best efforts to wrangle an invite.  Essentially, the Chinese gave trump a "deliverable" aka something to brag about in return for trump dropping the next tariff levy, but other than the $200 billion promise nothing else of significance,  whatever trump says.

  If the Chinese don't deliver on the $200 billion, Phase One will be a failure.  Phase Two is a pipedream.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: And as far as Phase Two goes, .....

25% tariff on $200 billion (not even half of what we could tariff, if we really got serious) is $50 Billion.   And to live up to their agreement, all China has to do is buy $40 billion of pork and soybeans that they need anyway.  Are the Chinese really good at math or was that just a stereotype busted?

Yeah I know "Weeeeee pay the tariffs!!!"  However, when "weeeeee" get tired of paying them, the factories will move here or a more cooperative country.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Ah, you're wrong....

A local manufacturer here was just forced to shut down his US production and move it back to China because he couldn't get a tariff exemption on special electric motors required.  It turns out that the motors are subject to tariff but the finished goods aren't. 

  The result, lost of 50 manufacturing jobs in a rural area where the loss of even one job hurts.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Ah, you're wrong....

I assume that his finished product will be imported back into the US?  Well, is he gambling that the trade "war" is over and they`ll remove tariffs on his finished product?   Because that wouldn`t make sense to move a factory to China just to bypass what might be a temporary motor tariff, but roll the dice that that his finished product will get nailed.  No, there`s more to the story.

 But on electric motors.  we have a Beckett oil burner furnace one of the last in the area that isn`t propane.  So, cold snap about Christmas it took a crap, I`m about the only one that can clobble on them anymore, I put in a nozzle, set the points yada yada and it worked intermittent.  Had to go on the road so called a service place that still had a gray haired guy that still knows about oil burners (first he tried to sell us new propane furnace  🙂 )  But he looked at it and said the motor`s shot.  So I had the Wife order a 1/7 hp 3450 rpm motor on Ebay, $90 I called the furnace guy I got one ordered and I`ll put it in (2 wires and 2 bolts) .  He said I already ordered one and I thought, "how much is this gonna be?" He said "90 bucks, should I send it back?"  I said "Nope, I`ll keep it for a spare" the original lasted 25 years so I have 50 years of motors for that furnace   🙂

But 90 bucks for a furnace motor!  That`s less than a service call just to step in the door!  I didn`t check if it was made in China or Canada or US or subject to tariffs.  But, I would`ve still been tickled pink if the motor was $180.  So a lot of this tariff stuff is huffing and puffing.

RJG640v8
Advisor

Re: Perdue unsure, I thought the MFP payments were to compensate for the past year's losses.

China going up to $50 billion new amount of sales , gain of $29 billion , tarriffs cost farmers $11 billion , $28 billion out as MFP cost to all us taxpayers.......... looks like the the whole deal leaves us all $39 billion in the hole.  Art of the Stdeal.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Perdue unsure, I thought the MFP payments were to compensate for the past year's losses.

There`s $100`s of billions of capital that leaves this country to China each year.  Living wage US jobs replaced by Chinese slave labor.   No spinning out of that fact.  

wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Time


@rickgthf wrote:

Perdue unsure when the third payment will hit the mailboxes, and yet, he thinks it won't be until fall before we see the full benefit of  Phase One.  He's right about the fall, we've clearly missed the soybean market window, China's Brazilian soybean buy season is already in full swing with 10 cargoes bought just last week.  In all likelihood, the Chinese won't be back to buy US beans until early Oct. and that's next year's crop.  What about this year's crop still in the bin.  Perdue's got the cart before the horse here.

  The last I checked, today, soybean basis in North Dakota was still -$1.25, twice the normal basis which still makes soybeans $8 there. I think they should wait until the Chinese actually meet the terms of Phase One and start to buy before they call the crisis over, situation resolved.

  It sure looks like trump is trying to chisel the farmers out of the last 25% of what he promised 9 months ago.  But he's been known to do that before so I guess it's not to be unexpected.   Trump must think farmers were born yesterday.


Time is a better chance for the govt to not pay the next MFP payment. 

World drought thus grain market goes up thus no supposed lower market's effect from Trump and Co. 

Farmers have a short memory. 

Heck they'll vote Trump in again.  LoL. 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Time

Just wondering if you've seen what the other side is offering to run against him?   

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: "The other side", if that's the argument, you've already lost.

So your argument comes down to the lesser of two evils?  That's a losing argument.  But the fact is, the Democrats have a whole range of possible candidates, including Steyer (a hedge fund manager), Bloomberg (a real billionare) and then for the republicans, there's Weld and maybe even Kasich.

  But take Deere's trade deficit argument, for example, trump has already traded away half his tariff weapon, for what?  $200 billion in sales over two years or $100 billion per year.  And even if the Chinese do perform, what happens after two years?  And the tariffs that are still in place turn out to do more damage to American manufacturing than good.

   Meanwhile, we're on the verge of war with Iran, we've made no progress with North Korea while the Chinese have promised Iran $400 billion in development aid and their still buying Iranian oil.  And as for the border wall, 100 miles of cheap metal barrier that can be cut through with hand tools for $6 billion dollars ($60 million per mile) while trump has just confiscated another $7.2 billion from the military.  Even an idiot can understand the corruption that stands for.

  It's one thing to have a policy goal, it's quite another to execute the plan.

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