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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Peter Zeihan Talks Pork!

An intelligent fellow on the other site brought this to my attention, hat tip to him.  Peter Zeihan spoke at "Swine Day" and there`s a ton of takeaways.   I will write this movie script in the form where the conclusion is at the beginning.   Basically, "crazy" farmers who just put up another $1 million hog barn and bought a $20,000/acre farm aren`t crazy at all, they are going to be filthy rich by the end of the decade.

Let`s start with fertilizer (bigger deal than I even thought) and world land where corn & beans can be grown to feed the hogs.  The US checks all the boxes, fertilizer we can get from Canada (high priced, but close and available), natural gas (so much they burn it off in North Dakota).   Brazil NEEDS Russia`s potash, without it they have "beach sand" ..  anyone hear what`s going on in Russia these days? 🙂 

Oil.  Yeah,  "gas prices are comin` down, thank you Joe Biden for releasing strategic oil supplies" 😂   well actually the "non-recession" slowed demand...   In a way the US is Blessed with the shale oil as a shale field can be brought on line in 3 to 8 weeks where it takes 3 to 8 years to bring a traditional field to full operation.  

The thing with shutting down the Russian oil pipelines, with their perma frost so long as oil flows it`s okay, once it`s stopped the water freezes and cracks the pipe.  May take decades to replace as it did when the Russians shut one down in 1992.  

China having a tough time with Covid, if they didn`t shut down they would lose 5 million people a day for months.  For some reason Covid is real in China.  China`s workforce aging rapidly, military is 3rd rate, won`t survive the decade, don`t base your agriculture sales on China being your customer.   That isn`t me (someone who hates China) saying that, it`s what Peter says.  

Baby boomers in US retiring and parking their immense assets in T-bills safer than stocks.  Therefore capital is going to get much higher, if you`re going to borrow in the next 20 years, do it now and lock it in. 

So who`s gonna buy this pork?  Zeihan says South America and Asia such as Vietnam and InDoornesia.  Indoornesia is Muslim, yet they buy pork   wink wink nudge nudge.  

Please watch this, for your wealth`s sake:   

My "plan A" is to fill my diesel barrels (in the next month)  to get me through fall.  After harvest, spread 250lbs of Potash regardless of price,  probably 100-150lbs of MAP or DAP being as with all the manure and overapplying P over the years I`m already at 700-800lbs of combined P1 and P2 .  Probably farm the rest of my life without adding another lbs of P.    As for putting up a $1 million barn?  I`m thinking, I`m thinking   

3 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Peter Zeihan Talks Pork!

I live in an area with both a chicken processing plant and a 10,000 hd a day hog plant. If I had children I might be interested in hog buildings so I had something to pass down to them. But since I don't, I just buy the manure. I had hog manure applied before beans last year and had my personal best soybean yield. This year I raised wheat without applying any P or K. The field that had hog manure applied averaged 75 bu. The small field next to it that they couldn't get manure applied only went 40 bu. Now that the wheat is cut I am having chicken litter applied at 3 tons to the acre. It's (the litter) in abundance this time of year. Something about manure just works a lot better than synthetic fertilizer. My thinking is more farmers should add wheat to the rotation every 3 or 4 years just to apply manure during the summer months, and cut down on buying commercial synthetic fertilizer. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Peter Zeihan Talks Pork!

Will  China  investors  sell  their  U.S.  pork holdings,   due  to  their  aging  population  - ? 

Those  multi -  million  $$$$  price  fixing  settlements  would  have  built  how  many  facilities - ? 

$1,000,ooo.oo   X  6% interest loan  rate =  how  many  tons  of  applied  product - ? 

The  speaker  writings  on  ''' DE- globalization '''' , The  End  Of The  World  Is  Just  Beginning  -  seems a  bit  odd  ? ? ?   

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Peter Zeihan Talks Pork!

Hey K-man, what I figure is China has a glut of billionaires (like the rest of the world) and they are free agents who will flee the sinking ship.  They will probably move into one of the many properties that they already own in the US and business as usual.

What intrigues me about Peter Zeihan (other than his uncanny record of being right)  is he is saying things that I want to happen, such as the downfall of China and end of the "Bretton Woods world".  Even though Peter is a happy go-lucky guy, I don`t gather he personally likes the news that he has to report.   He absolutely isn`t a "Trump fan" I would bet that he voted for Biden as the "lesser evil" .   But I respect someone as diametrically opposed to my world view,  shares the same raw information that we both come to opposed conclusions about.

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