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Senior Advisor

Phoney numbers from the USDA

I would think that somebody has done a clinical study of the USDA crop reports over the last several decades and has determined their degree of accuracy. We do alot of griping and complaining about the alledged inaccuracies but what is their batting averages year after year on crop predictions and actuall production figures.

 

Are they wrong all of the time? Most of the time? half of the time? More than half of the time? Less than half of the time. 

 

As someone that has difficulty predicting my own yield averages, I'm hardly capable of of competing with the USDA in that department. What makes you so certain that you know more than the USDA?

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

I, myself, don't really know about their Supply and Demand numbers whether they are accurate or not.  What makes me mad is the USDA's predictions at the beginning of each planting season and the fact that most traders take those numbers as gospel and trade accordingly. The trend for corn yields in the last three years is lower, yet USDA throws out last years' number like it never happened and again forecasted record yields.  (even when the drought in many areas was not over) They should stick to reporting scientific data on numbers they can actually verify...not some wild & crazy fantasy yield and acreage numbers.  I'm not sure though who is worse, them for predicting that stuff or the morons who believe it.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

I'm not playing with someone else's money or livelihood.  I have to be accountable for my mistakes.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

I think it would help their credability some if they would start with first projections as a five year average.  That is all I can plan on before I even plant.  We may even be enough years into the tech seed to use a ten year average, but either way an average would be more credible than record high.  But that is just my opinion.

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Senior Advisor

Re: How about it Mr Jenkins

Have you studied USDA predictions versus actual crop production?

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Contributor

Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

Krafty.........you are a liberal with an obama agenda...we all can see that.   MY question to you is... why didnt they release the PP numbers the same time as they did the stocks report??   And dont tell me they didnt have access to em until 2 days later. 

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Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

I have not converted a single person to my viewpoint but will remain steadfast.

 

Yes, USDA gives a little windage to numbers from time to time. Particularly in the election years 2000 and 2004. The skew was in favor of farmers if they chose to not look the gift horse in the mouth.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Phoney numbers from the USDA

I would know even less about it than you do.

 

I am a liberal but i ever voted for Obama either time. I wouldnt be such a weak naive president. If the GOP didn't play ball with me I would ram the bat up their ***!  Lol

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