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Honored Advisor

Piled higher than we thought

MARKET COMMENTARY July 15, 2014

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

The crop ratings were good enough to keep pressure on the corn market in the overnight session, and the soybean crush number for June was a bit lower than expected, which pressed August beans down 43 cents at one time---with a recovery to a loss of “just” 16 cents.

 

If there was every any doubt that there was an adequate supply of corn held by elevators and farmers---well, those doubts have been put to bed with the market activity seen since the end of June reports. Based on what we are seeing, I will not be surprised at all to see the September 1 corn carryout projection increase in future reports----and a larger ending stock’s number just means a bigger starting point for the next marketing year to be added to what appears to be a very large corn crop on the way.

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Anybody want to move to the interior of Brazil and row crop 1500 miles from a market?

 

Going to be some reorganizations going on in North America AND South America if this lasts very long.

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9 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

Want to be a seed salesperson with a $300 corn price and a $60 bean price card?

 

Better belly up to the bar and get yours before we run out of the good stuff. I can hear it now...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

Agrigold has seedcorn prices out.......(don't know the details yet)....  gonna be less than last year.......but still a rather large investment.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

A question. I got told off the other week
By the local coop man, I was questing
Their brand name only product policy.

I was told that if we do not buy and pay for
All the new chemicals and seed, we would
Where we were 20 years ago. "It costs
Alot of money to development
These new products."

First, I get tired of "my employee" saying that.

Second I think Monsanto has been making
Money.

Look at these prices we have thanks to
All the new products

Oh now we see seed companies cutting
Prices? ??
How can they afford to do that...after all
The expenses they have???

Why have their expenses gone down
When the price go down?

Maybe Monsanto can take a full page
Add out in successful farming, and explain
What has happen, and why have they
Been charging us so much this last
Couple years

When you go to the farm progress shows,
Ask this to all the seed people.

You'll come home with enough pens. Notebooks and caps to last you 5 years.


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Honored Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

the price does not necessarily reflect their cost of production

As much as it does their perception of % of value and just 

Wanting their fair share.

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Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

"fair share"? that is a very subjective idea. My "fair share" could easily be in the red, so do all employees (ceo down to truck loaders) take a cut to match the "fair share".

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Senior Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

"Fair share" ?? -- I'd say their plan has been, "What the market will bear", or perhaps even pricing in most of whatever they project we would gain by using their "superior" products.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

Fair share. ????


What is mine. ???
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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

Industry standard thinking is 25 to33%   of the benefit of the technology is the price. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Piled higher than we thought

So there might be a 75 price rebate ?

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