My bet (for what it's worth) is that the low will come late September/early October. They are currently planning on stopping the 1 million barrel per day robbing of the SPR in October. The election is in November, so Lucy can pull the football away from Charlie Brown when America is again faked into thinking Dems can solve economic problems as well as they create them.
A key thing to watch is the lockdowns in China. In the end, America may look like the smart one for just letting covid run wild and getting it over with quickly (despite stoopid mandates). China is STILL bent on a zero-covid policy, and are now hurting their own economy as badly as we hurt our own. I woulda thought they were smarter than that, having seen us do it first. But all good things must come to an end - when covid goes from pandemic to endemic in China, their energy demands will come roaring back and worldwide oil production capacity is still be just barely above demand. We WILL see $150 oil again, just not sure when.
I grit my teeth and filled my diesel tanks at $4.26 last week. But in the end, doubling my diesel cost means another $15/acre in costs. Doubling fertilizer means another $125/acre in cost on corn. Higher diesel kinda gets lost in the noise. My friend in The Netherlands says electricity is 75cents/kwh and natural gas is $96/1000 cubic feet. Europe is in really bad shape energy-wise. Hope we learn from their poorly executed energy transition.
