No doubt we are dry but a couple of inches of good rain can give us a different perspective. 2 inches may not be enough but a high percentage would be retained by the soil instead of moving down stream. If nothing else we will come to the conclusion that at least it can rain.
I do wonder about the fall tilled soils not having enough moisture to freeze and mellow the clods. It could make it tough to prepare a good seed bed.
I don't think lack of moisture will cause a problem with freezing out the clods in fall tilled fields. It has been my experience...that if you till dry soil in the fall...it is already in better condition than if it was at near field capacity and had tillage done to it. It then takes quite a bit less "freeze/thaw" action to actually condition the drier clod than it does to condition those wads of soil thrown off when it's wet.
I was getting really concerned as we had no soil moisture til about Oct. 25 . Couldn't get wheat out. But we have been getting quite a bit of rain since (5" + 2" + 1.5" + 1?") so probably about 9" total. And the ground has not been frozen so most of it soaked in. However, we will probably start spread soybean fertilizer and running a chisel plow tomorrow, so It is soaking away.
I live in Missouri also and being dry is no problem to me. Usually, we have better crops when it isn't too wet. 2011 was not a good year as there was maybe 10 inches above normal. Ask any farmer in northwest Missouri along the Missouri river if he prefers a wet year. Your perspective on this depends where you are living and your soils. in a dryer planting season, compaction is not a problem
