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03-14-2019 06:43 PM
JMO but I don`t see how we would borrow our way out of these so-called "low prices". Loans are loans and have to be paid back, if a $3.50 loan rate allowed you to deliver the corn and that would considered as "paying the loan off" or you could take out a "LDP" well that would put more money in producer`s pocket. However, that would cost taxpayers money and probably wouldn`t be acceptable.
But a blast from the past on farm radio, they always reminded you "Call before you haul!"
We and the world have just plowed up too much pasture and had too many unprecedented above trend yields in a row and have to eat our way through it....everybody, grab a spoon! But farming is "whack a mole" if prices get profitable, we`ll do everything in our power to make them unprofitable, sure as the Sun rises in the morning.
03-16-2019 09:35 AM
It's just "buying" "time" in your personal marketing cycle. And under the older fsa rules. It insured no losses under the loan rate.
No worries for the rest of your days...... Lion king Farm Policy
I remember when 20 cents in the corn market was so much "profit" that 40 acres of hogs seemed esential to guarantee we capture the gain.
Well guess what "weeeere back" and 20 cents is important again.
Problem is Cotton is getting a base price that is at a survival rate and corn has a 1953 loan rate that is a "deplorable" reminder of an ancient farm policy that helped our ancestors survive Earl Butts policies -----Policies that made "under the table" PIC certificate traders out of farmers trying to find 20 cents in the bureaucratic bread crumbs on the floor.
Don't worry,,,,,,, Bayer is preparing us some bread crumbs under their table.....as they step into administer and oversee grain production in the new technical style....... usda will welcome that ... its called "outsourcing" "They do it better than we do" and we just bask in our taxpayer funded job security"
Keep searching for your 20 cents.......... it's down there....
It is hard to see a marketing strategy that does not have risk.. (and when you do the fun is over).... the sell in March at 9.45 and add on a voodoo government payment of $1.60...... from the most hated POTUS of all time seems very risky but we probably trust that more than the other ideas on or under the table. You can be under water a long time before congress will consider a change of farm policy that is not a rubber stamp of a once embarassing repeat mistake.
So I am for a low cost presentation to the farming gods. with a fleshy sacrifice over fire. Sometime before Mid july.
Beans and wheat seam to be the simple answer for me...... Low cost inputs...... optional production styles .... highest perceived market volatility... and go into the season with our "progressive" marketing guns drawn and loaded for quick action on the triger and less bushels to actually have to handle or eat...................... and pocket book friendly....... repeat Low cost inputs.
03-16-2019 10:08 AM
Sorry time ...... I am just getting tired of telling young enthusiastic farmers that this is "back to normal". You just work for a living and most don't.
Without seasonal trade we just get to look at "garbage in/ garbage out charts" and you have to search out the one hidden from the presentation and wonder why.
Are the folks speaking or (typing) just exercising their freedom to communicate, ------ are they as shallow as they sound. Did they just google supporting charts for their cute provacative presentation? Was that worth the time?
The machines get smarter but the public level of critical thinking declines adversely to the trend line.
I find myself juggling international travel schedules, spring training scores, snowfall reports, tracking motor parts, following instant trading and still needing help to find the door at the grocery store.
I love these young guys who get to work with the best equipment ever built. Find excitement for the job they do. Like to sift through the manure of a promotion intended to enslave them, while they search for the "intellectual" property they can steal.
Ohhh to be young again.
03-16-2019 03:20 PM
And just to help make your point, that is "WORLD" stocks to use,
where we know NASS just created a zillion bushels of 10 year
old corn stored on some dirt floor in China.
Point being, the real S/U is about 15% of real bushels in the
03-18-2019 05:11 PM
absolutely right usda has put us in a spot where almost every bushel in carry is dependent on, and found(if it is real) in China inventory..... Corn not available to any market in the US in either form.
That is the war we are loosing and NASS figures may be seen as China's best friend as we compete.
(We don't even inspect our own inventory. Does NASS inspect the china bushels for verification??
I am sure we are taking their word for it. Once Reuters prints what they are told, NASS is comfortable.)
03-18-2019 05:48 PM - edited 03-18-2019 05:54 PM
Quote from a search on Chinese farm exports--- a simple wickapedia quote that has been there for a long time and I have yet to find fault with.........
In its first fifty years, the People's Republic of China greatly increased agricultural production through organizational and technological improvements.
However, since 2000 the depletion of China's main aquifers has led to an overall decrease in grain production, turning China into a net importer. The trend of Chinese dependence on imported food is expected to accelerate as the water shortage worsens. Despite their potential, desalination plants find few customers because it is still cheaper to over-utilize rivers, lakes and aquifers, even as these are depleted.
As of 2011, China was both the world's largest producer and consumer of agricultural products. However, the researcher Lin Erda has stated a projected fall of possibly 14% to 23% by 2050 due to water shortages and other impacts by climate change; China has increased the budget for agriculture by 20% in 2009, and continues to support energy efficiency measures, renewable technology, and other efforts with investments, such as the over 30% green component of the $586bn fiscal stimulus package announced in November 2008.
--------------- That is a sizeable subsidization of Agriculture in China while we divert our budget for agriculture to food stamps.
Now ask yourself a couple of questions ......... It has been almost 20 years since their declining water reserves in china were noted.(to be depleating their production).... and in the US it is the same......California quit developing its water retention systems and diverted their irrigation water to urban use several years ago. Over half of the central plains aquifer reserves are depleted. (and the other half in Nebraska is being restricted and now damaged)
Questions......1 Are Chinese supplies open to be purchased by everyone who comes calling..... ?? I don't see them on the list of countries exporting wheat or corn.... and very few beans.
2 Can we depend on China to be a world supplier of corn wheat and beans ?? Then why do we believe NASS's use their of China's propaganda...?????????????? They are not contributing to world supplies. They do not have a surplus to contribute.
03-19-2019 05:24 AM
Another question that would require some research but doubt good sources are available to us.
We have heard about polluted waterways in China.
If this water is used for irrigation, what happens to the ground/crops this water is used on?
03-19-2019 06:59 AM
Did anyone see this (speaking of China)? They tried to smuggle 1 million lbs of pork INTO this country. Well heck, a third of their hogs came down with African Swine Fever, then they process all those sick hogs and in the short term have to peddle the pork somewhere. "I know, let`s get Uncle Sam to take it...he`ll take anything". Oh I know those that aren`t a fan of the current POTUS like to point to bean prices and such, but this is what he is up against with these people, sometimes single-handedly.