cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Pre-USDA Ideas

This Thursday, the USDA releases its March Supply/Demand Report. Overall, the report is seen as a snoozer. However, there may be some important nuggets in there, one analyst says. Here's his quick look:


--For nine reports in a row, corn ending stocks have been lowered. This week could make it 10.

--No motivation for raising or lowering corn exports, ethanol or feed usage.

--South America's corn production could get bumped up a bit.

--For soybeans, Brazil and Argentina's numbers could be raised.

 

The average analysts' estimate for the 2010-11 corn ending stocks is 667 million mt, below Feb.'s 675.

Soybean ending stocks are expected to be 141 million mt, above USDA's 140 million mt. Feb. estimate.

Wheat ending stocks esimates are averaged at 809 million mt, below USDA's Feb. estimate of 818 million mt.

 

The report's world numbers could look like this: Corn number lowered, soybean number raised slightly, and the world wheat supply number unchanged, the trade estimates. We'll see.


What do you think could happen this Thursday? Will you be watching? Or, have you already started camping out in your shop, greasing up the iron?


Mike


0 Kudos
7 Replies
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

As you note, there are some trends. I don't think the report will be a big deal, however, that hasn't prevented market gyrations in the past, as I've often pointed out, before the trends reassert themselves. Gobal predictions are speculative for now as it depends on the next Northern Hemisphere crop conditions, and expectations that wheat acres in Russia will be significantly down due to dampened prices from the embargo.

 

Make no mistake, the next year is crucial. This report won't be able to provide much insight into that.

0 Kudos
SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

I'm with Palouser. I'm not expecting much movement up or down from Thursdays report. I was however a little surprised that this morning's positive corn export numbers didn't seem to help hold corn up a little more.

 

From here I will be trading weather as the new growing season gets underway.  We already know stocks are tight and we especially need a near record corn crop to assure ample stocks for 2012. Any hiccup in the weather that delays planting or stresses the crop in the US or elsewhere will provide opportunities to lock in some more new crop and finish up old crop sales.

 

 

0 Kudos
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

IMHO...... This market will now trade sideways until there is some clear cut evidence of demand rationing...... Or there is more production shortfalls around the world...... The longer the market screws around here the higher it goes later as there will be less time and less bu to ration....... p-oed

0 Kudos
idalivered
Advisor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

I've always wondered about the "timing" of each marketing year? the 2009 crop was fully 4-6 weeks late in being harvested and the 2010 corn and soy crop got harvested at an amazing pace in the month of oct. Would that start us grinding thru that crop earlier and consequently using up supply earlier  than normal? does the carryover(whatever size) account for these issues?

0 Kudos
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

idalivered,

 

I think you bring up some good points. One of the things China likes is fresh crop. So, if we have an early harvest, we could chew through those supplies sooner. Also, end-users prefer the highest quality of corn and soybeans as well. They could buy their needed supply sooner as well, especially if they feel the prices are just going to keep getting higher.

 

And something else I've been thinking about is the premium that could be put on 'high quality' crops. Because supply is already short, there will be less chance to blend poor quality corn or beans with the 'good' stuff, don't you think? And also, is the high quality crop usually harvested in its normal growing days, not early or late. Or does that matter?

 

Just a few thoughts,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
frankne
Veteran Contributor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

I would be amazed if this corn crop got planted on time.Not unless this weather changes.

0 Kudos
rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Pre-USDA Ideas

I figure ending moves to the 785 to 930 range now.

No big deal...but should confirm the correction trend for corn.

 

Soy, ending at 95 to 105.

Wheat right at 1 B.

0 Kudos