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Advisor

Ok for you folks

who can knock out 200+ bushel.acre...even in a drought year.   It's areas such as the southern half of Illinois that is in deep doo doo here.   Sure, we can hit 200 bph on occasion....but 2012 was 0.   County Averages around 120-130.    Plug $ 3.30 in on that, and remember our inputs are just as great as Bloomington IL for seed fert, chem, eauip, insurance, etc.....and you're looking at a huge disaster....Imagine the scenario when the southern half of the state drought hits and national yields are over thje top.....ouch.   We're entering some big time risk here with not even crop insurance doing anything but helping us lose less money.

 

Remember....it could happen to you, regardless of where you reside....Mother nature can pick and choose winners and losers at random.   Pray you don't hit that lottery.

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Advisor

Re: Prepare for Bankruptcy

Whats your land cost bf12
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Senior Advisor

Re: Ok for you folks

You're right -- production expectations are a lot different in Marion and Mt. Vernon than they are in Bloomington, Danville and Freeport.  Has always seemed like Chicago considers anything South of Chicago as "Southern Illinois", while most of the rest of us look more at I-70, or "Little Egypt".

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Senior Contributor

Re: Ok for you folks

Those big yields do require replacemt fertilizer, and the neighbors like to remind the landlords about how much more cash rent that high dollar ground should be worth, so not all is roses. Long term, land rents in any area will tend to leave operators with only the COP left. That is why only well capitalized operators with the lower COP tend to survive the shake outs longer term.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Ok for you folks

BF,

 

Why bother going on?  Rent out your land and have an auction.  It seems like we are all doomed to fail so get out while the getting is good.

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Advisor

My thinking exactly.

Should have done it last fall before all the fertilizer and fall tillage took place....and that pesky wheat crop.  And then there is that other

little problem with selling the equipment line.    Uncle Obama.

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Advisor

Re: My thinking exactly.

Knew a guy who wasn't near retirement age and up and sold everything near the top in 1980.

 

Probably the pain of possibly being wrong exceeds the potential gain of being right.

 

And back then he could put the money in the bank and live off the high interest rates.

 

Currently risk free returns are negative and I don't see any investment opportunties that look cheap.

 

So unless you've got a few $mill or are willing to liquidate capital to live on, it's not an easy question.

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Advisor

Re: My thinking exactly.

If you actually were interested I think you could gift the equipment to your alma mater, church, other tax deductible charity and take a life or period annuity.

 

Of course like everyhting else now, low rates are going to be locked in.

 

Probably a better option the older you are.

 

For older folks retaining the land for income purposes and a hedge against inflation, receiving life income from an annuity plus SS medicare is a pretty sweet mix.

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Senior Contributor

Re: My thinking exactly.

    The USDA,the trade,the analyst say time to be negative.You guys are negative!(after all,we don't have the &@!!$ to show them we can alter a little and do something a little different!

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Advisor

Re: My thinking exactly.

Surely there were some tougher times ahead somewhere after a pretty rosy ride.

 

Should be easily weathered by those who used the good times to get well heeled.

 

But there probably will be people who look back in 5 years and wonder why they didn't just pull the plug back then.

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