Prevent Plant number-logy.
At the risk of being accuse do being disloyal, Farm Journal published the results of producer survey on prevent plant. They surveyed, "polled?" 938 producers and asked about prevent plant corn. They didn't say how they selected their respondents, randomly selected, a properly stratified sample or self-selected but we can hope that the 938 fairly represent the 93 million acres that producers planned on planting.
The results were, 52% had no plans to take any prevent plant, 14% would take 10% or less PP, 13% would take 25% or less PP, 7% would take 50% or less PP and 14% would take more than 50% PP.
Let's assume that when the 13% who would take 25% or less actually meant, they would take more than 10% but 25% or less. Likewise, those taking 50% or less were between 25% and 5o%. Furthermore let's assume that the median of each category was 5%, 17.5%, 37.5% for the 10%, 25% & the 50% PP categories. Finally, we could assume that the average PP for the greater than 50% category was 75% but since it's the most heavily acre weighted category, let's imagine two possible scenarios, The first scenario would be the average % acres taken for the "greater than 50%" category is the minimum 51%, Or the second scenario would be the average % acres taken for the "greater than 50%" category is 75%.
In the first scenario, the average % PP would be 12.6 % whereas in the second scenario, the average % PP would be 16%.
This suggests that the acres PP might range between 11.7 and 14.9 million acres. This would be much higher than the 6-7 million acres being talked about in some circles but given the fact that as of June 2nd, last week, some 30 million acres remained to be planted, it might not be as unreasonable as it first sounds.
Re: Prevent Plant number-logy.
Around here (SE SD) the only people still planting corn are those that need silage or feed for livestock.
So another analysis could be, how much corn will be missing at the elevator, rather than total? My guess is the "delivered bushel" shortage, as a percentage of the total, will be larger than the PP percentage total. I have 54% of my corn planted, and I won't be planting any more. I do not have any beans in yet. Tried today and got stuck 3 times with the disk. I have one field I just started renting a couple years ago that has low APH's from the previous renter, so my PP payment is low. That low APH is a smaller hurdle to pass even with lower yield for late planting, so I will probably plant that as long as I can get it done before the end of June. But that might be it - likely 70% PP on beans.