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03-12-2018 11:12 AM
Could this be a canary in the coal mine, for the March Prospective Planting Report? Due to price, U.S. farmers are cutting corn acres, increasing soybean acres in the South, this month.
See full story: The U.S. 2018 Corn Crop Is Already Coming Out Of The Ground
03-13-2018 09:12 AM - edited 03-13-2018 09:32 AM
Corn has it's own level of doom at these prices.....as Mike spelled out in another thread when the bankers see red ink in sub 200 yields or even 180 which is still over national average............ corn acres have a problem.... Last years news... just unrecognized by usda.
Beans over 10 work and allow for cost controls. Cotton has a good insurance price..... Acres will go up ................ also last years news....
one other comment...... technology has driven the COP of corn higher and higher. (Along with the mandated increases in costs/enviro care insurance). those costs are going to be difficult to roll back(more likely will continue to increase) and on a world price stage, US producers are in trouble...... kind of like being a baseball free agent in 2018.
Have you attended your share of dicamba meetings this winter....... and gained the paper credentials available?
A whole lot of butt covering going on this winter ---- triple denim for everyone with a desk job or advice to sell. Looks to me like the producer is hung out to dry in the "responsibility" section.
Funny chuckle came to me in the middle of a lecture where a "too young to know" expect was commenting......Statement was..... "One of the best things you can do is apply a good residual herbicide to prevent the in season use of dicamba...." etc etc.
I had an instant flashback 30 years when in a similar administrative clamor to cover butt after atrazine turned up in groundwater contained the comment "One of the best things you can do to prevent atrazine leaching is to rely on more contact herbicide without residual issues" etc etc.
Paper shufflers....................butts are covered...
03-13-2018 01:27 PM
SW - interesting point of tech-Kno the C O P higher , agreed, although I thought the '' sermon's '' were, TECH know, was for lower C O P ?
Maybe the read should have been , if you $pend enuf , we can help ?
03-14-2018 09:36 AM
Yes, even in the 3 I state there can be some shift of corn and soybean acres, but my opinion is the biggest shift is in the peripheral states.
In Iowa, I can't make any money or loss any less money by growing wheat or milo or sorghum. I grow corn and beans and usually in rotation.
So, saying that a fringe corn state is moving to soybeans isn't necessarily saying very much to what will be grown in the upper midwest. It may mean something about what will be grown in OK, KS, SD, ND, etc. And that can make a difference, but it is not a linear trend.
03-19-2018 09:42 AM
Great comment......time Linear Trends exist only at the show in Washington. Corn acres will be decreasing for a third year in much of the fringe.... but the fringe is very flexible...and quick on its feet.
It seems hard to feel sorry for the corn belt, but maybe we should..
Reality is half the bean crop and half the corn crop is raised somewhere else. Somewhere that is flexible in cropping and in general has higher COP.
That is the problem that occurs when we do not enforce our monopoly laws and legislate growth of multi national corporations in washington.
The "corn belt" lost much of its flexibility to environmental law and livestock corporatization. The old answer was diversification through livestock...... Try building a feeding facility on a scale that is profitable..... eventually the EPA will come calling. But then it may not if your not a multinational that can pay for the cost of a trip to the midwest.