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Senior Contributor

Prices

Every time prices tanked this year we were told the bottom is forming. looks like its still forming!
Does anybody posting here think the bottom will be lower than in 2000? With so much supply in the world i think corn will start with a $1. Beans with a $4 and wheat with a $2!
How many of us can survive with those numbers!? who would want to?
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8 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Prices

Are you talking about CME or local cash prices?

I'd be surprised if futures prices in the nearby start wtih a 2 for corn.  Maybe an 8 for soybeans but I'm not betting much money on that.  I have no clue on wheat.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Prices

The basis colapse is the most rediculous and unexplainable ---- and discouraging

But is probably a function of economic cash in. Fear.
Something we're not used to.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Prices

Do you think the basis change is because farmers are dumping grain ahead of harvst or because they fear prices will get even lower?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Prices

Basis is purely an indicator of the minimum price end users have to pay to secure a sufficient supply.

Price is always adjusted to fit supply, only other trick is " free dp " that can mess up true price discovery.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Prices

Just got this....

I see no basis improvement
til after this...

"S:CORN & BEANS M:ALL corn & beans UNPRICED on Price Later or Open Storage or delivered this month WILL BE SOLD on Sept 30 if you don't sell it before then"

We should put all the "growers " that did this on our Christmas card list.

Nothing quite like being your worst enemy and taking your farmer neighbors down with you.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Prices

Hobby,  All elevators do not do this.   I would be finding a new place to take my grain if I was you.

 

And really, you can't blame the guys that did this.   At some point in time they were going to sell the grain anyways.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Prices

This is a very touchy things.........first......it will set your LDP on that date...according to the rules, you would get your ldp at the

time of sale, or when you request......if you have control..........this could be interesting.

second........according to the rules in my goofy state.....if you haul in grain......and they have a state issue facilities lic, and

you haul in gain, and you request a wharehouse receiept........they MUST issue one..........if not, one little call to topeka

will cause the elevator to "change it's mind" in a few minutes.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Prices

Jim
I think we been in a "bills to pay" and "fear of lower prices" spiral since lastnovember when the basis spiral downward started. If a farmer was borrowing only 40% of his cash flow then, he is over 80% cash flow borrowed now.
If you took 30 years to reach a self financed position , and now your looking at borrowing 50% to stay in the game. In one year. ........well, fear of next years reality cashes in a lot of grain way too early.
------
Two wsj articles today add to the fear. One on the issue of declining society structure in Pennsylvania and the political effects of society in decline.
Second one on the 74 stranded Hanjin cargo ships at sea who can't dock or unload because of the bankruptcy of the parent company. One of the worlds big international shipping companies.
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