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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Pricing 2015 Corn

It's time to start guessing what the corn yield will be for 2015 so you can factor that into your marketing plan.

 

Illinois says yields can be all over the place.  There is no solid way to estimate.  Their number crunching is that the long term yield trend line is as accurate as any (admitting that when all lis said and done it won't be all that accurate, either).

 

So....you can just ignore it all and market by the seat of your pants, which is what most will do.

 

If you do want to look at the first of what will be a mountain of guesses over the year, here is one.  It's a long, complicated, busy article.

 

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/02/expectations-for-2015-us-average-corn-yield.html

 

"Implications

The U.S. average corn yield since 1960 has shown: i) large positive and negative deviations from trend, ii) the duration of consecutive years with above or below trend yields has varied considerably, iii) the correlation between yield deviations in consecutive years is negligible, and iv) the pattern of yield deviations following years of very large positive deviations (like 2014) is quite mixed. This diverse and largely random set of patterns suggests that the most objective early-season yield expectation for any year, including 2015, should be based on the trend of actual yields. A range of trend yield projections is plausible depending on the sample period, the functional form of the trend model, and whether a bias adjustment is considered or not. Given the various alternatives, we maintain that yield expectations should be based on the longest sample of data with a stable trend yield component. Since we have been unable to find significant evidence of trend yield shifts since 1960, we argue that the period of 1960-2014 best meets this criterion. After adjusting for bias, the best linear fit of actual yields in the U.S. from 1960 through 2014 results in a trend yield projection for 2015 of 164 bushels per acre. This is 2.8 bushels less than the USDA's 2015 trend yield projection for corn of 166.8 bushels released at last week's Outlook Forum. The higher trend projection by the USDA is likely due to a sample that starts in the drought year of 1988 and a "certainty-equivalent" approach that assumes with certainty average weather and planting progress will occur in 2015. Regardless of which trend projection is considered, there is, as usual, large risk of deviations from the projection. For example, we estimate there is roughly a one-in-ten chance of the U.S. average corn yield falling below 150 bushels and a two-in-ten chance of yield rising above 170 bushels. It's no wonder that weather forecasters are in such high demand."

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8 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

15 year trend (00-14) is 159ish

 

15 year avg (00-14) is 148ish

 

split the difference 153.5 on 77-79M harvested acres

 

11.82B to 12.13B crop

 

wonder what carryout looks like with those numbers?

 

FWIW, can price 2015 corn for spring 16 delivery, $4.35.  Not interested yet.

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

Sorry, but I just have to laugh here.   You used the word "guessing" and the word "estimate", but you did not use the word "projection".Smiley Very Happy

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

The only 2015 corn I've priced is running right at $165 for 80,000 seed count.  Milo is $195 for 50#.

Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

Posters on this site will give guesses.  U/Illinois is showing a projection as will the USDA later on.  None of them use prediction, whicih will be used frequently on this site.  🙂

 

 

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tractor12
Frequent Contributor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

can i ask what kind of corn and does it have any traits ,  what state are you in?

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

It's a Fontanelle refuge so the only technology it has is Roundup ready.  I'm located in Kansas.  I normally don't produce corn but I'll be no-tilling it into alfalfa that is being over taken by grass and corn has several herbicide options that grain sorghum doesn't allow.  If it doesn't make grain I'll green chop it for cattle feed.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

Shag - maybe fence off the grass and park the planter Smiley Very Happy

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Pricing 2015 Corn

I thought about that 289, but I'd need to haul water.  It is river bottom ground so hopefully the corn will have a fighting chance.  I'll crop it for 2-3 years and plant back to alfalfa.

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