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WCWISC
Veteran Contributor

Pro Farm Tour

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15 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

sounds like IL is just ho hum which is funny, cause it was supposed to pull rank............factor in NIL which has issues and you now have an "I" state that was supposed to be superman, WOUNDED...........

 

sounds like IN is pretty good, but they cut thru the best part too.........but IN will have some solid numbers...........

 

sounds like NE is exactly what many that have lived it thought.........rough.......and not up to par

 

so at the end of day 2 it appears we are about the same as last year.............

 

I put very little faith in their numbers as 2010 was a perfect example of Chip trying to match the USDA number and both failed miserably.............

 

my guage is trying to compare this year from a year ago..........and I believe they were at 154 a year ago..........

 

if they are true to themselves, they should land at 160..............thats about 4% over last years PFT numbers, which IMO is generous.........

 

my gut tells me they will go no lower than 164 and could go as high as 168-169.........IMO they do not cross 170..........

 

this crop will not finish out at nicely as last year............

 

HENCE MY CROP PROGRESS NUMBERS I HAVE BEEN SHOWING..........crop is further ahead than most realize, its pretty dang dry in many key areas and this last rain event has been a bust so far..........and its getting hotter not cooler.........

 

I just dont see a crop really any better off than last year..........this meaning +/- 2...........

 

160 X 80 is 12.8..............

 

 

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WCWISC
Veteran Contributor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

Can't argue with that MT.
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bkadds
Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

So if the above is true where do we go as far as price?
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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

Over 14 and looking at 3-3.50 with a planting carrot to 4

13.5-14 looking at 3.50-4 with a planting carrot to 4.5

13-13.5 looking at 4-4.50 with a planting carrot to 5

12.5-13 looking at 5 plus with chance at 6

JMO. Locally I think 5 is still doable with basis.......FYI locals are finally out checking.......it's good but not blow it out records........which is pretty much what I been saying.

IMO I am more concerned about 15 soya.........SA and NA both is falter on corn acres and many will go to soya or wheat this fall
bkadds
Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

I am aware of one producer planting all wheat this fall and no corn next spring. Unusual around here as if they have water the go to has been corn. Did not mention anything about cattle and grazing after corn is not possible unless they go silage this fall. Plans are subject to change, but this is a pretty sharp guy. Guess time will tell.
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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

We will have a far shake of wheat if we can get it in by mid October. Early corn is half starch line with 90s coming for a week so we should punch black layer before Labor Day. Plan to start shelling by September 20th so basically in a month. Have some early soya that we hope to cut by first week of October.

If weather is fit we will be hammering wheat in and hope to follow it up with DC soya
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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

Mizzou, Indiana will not make 186. The tour sampled areas near Indy and west central Indiana that have had ample rain. I just got back from visiting family in north central Indiana, and it looked like a wasteland down there. Some areas got more rain in 2012 than they've gotten this year, and the area my family is in normaly produces 200 bu yields. Most will be lucky to hit 100. I can remember hearing from a couple marketing gurus that they hadn't been in an Illinois cornfield yet that wouldnt hit 300 bu...yep... 300. That's the news the traders get and the market takes a dive as a result. Tip-back and N loss will take the top off this record crop. I think storage will pay this year. 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

...........and what if grain/pod fill ceases within 2-3 weeks north of I-80 as ground obervations trickle in - due to cool onset of fall?

 

is that a 10% reduction from current #'s -20%, 30%???

 

some of the ND, MN, SD, and WI crops are a mere week distant from pollination.................2 week outlook is preeety cool.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farm Tour

blacksandy...where in C-in were you? I'd have bought your lunch if you were close. The very dry area is pretty small but it is also very real if you are in it. tia

 

The sample from millersburg indiana is less than 2 miles from our home base. They picked the wrong fields to sample, I know the ones they picked, and they are undermanaged somewhat and are not representative. just one fwiw. Obviously the fields exist and go into the average but they are not representative is all.

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