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Veteran Advisor

Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

does anyone think SOME variables will come together next week?

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10 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

I will do you one even better......there should law enforcement setting at every stop ready to arrest anyone found trespassing......

The fact we just allow these "experts" that don't know jack to run around the country and make judgement calls on something they haven't a clue on that could move the market is crazy........and we just let em do it......

If the land owner is willing to all access, fine.......but otherwise it should be a crime......not to mention they are stealing 8 dollar corn......they could at least leave a donation........
Senior Contributor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

most years you should take a short positions before the crop tour starts

 

This years crop is hard to "guess" the yield on.  since ear size vary's through out the field. 

 

We have good kernel set on some of ours, but the kernel size is so small.  I've been using 110,000 kernels a bushel  vs. the standard 90,000 and I still come up with yields I don't believe are out there.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

One can almost guarantee that they will "find" better than expected crops......They just may have to pass by a few disaster fields and not count them.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

This tour goes through some of the hardest hit areas. In the past periferal areas not visited by the tour were seemingly the most damaged which seemed to slant the results too high. This could be the year this tour comes in too low.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

good idea re: donations. find out how much they take, est price, ask them politely to help the U.S. farmer in this historic STRICKEN yr.

 

can you watch them, ensure they don't overlook or "pass by" one field for the other, etc. You know, be more protective of YOUR interests in a critical yr.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

  If the western tour starts in SE S, Dak. , They will look at 0-50 bu corn and 10 bu beans. It wouldn't surprise me if they change there routes simply to be able to count something.

Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

I went on a crop tour today. Lets just say it started at about the 85 mile marker on I 80 in Iowa. I saw a lot of corn and beans that were good for the year. I went west to hyway 59 then north to Ida Grove, I believe I drove through some of the best crops in Iowa. Also saw some in distress mainly the beans are hurting worst than the corn in that stretch of Iowa.

 

There is not a perfect crop out there but it is generally pretty good there. There is corn falling down every where we went the whole day. Here was the first really bad field but as the day progressed saw many of these places.

 

081712951127[00].jpg

 

Lots good corn though This picture was taken today between Harlan, Iowa and Denison, Ia

 

As we progressed East from Ida Grove it slowly became more droughty. Just could not believe how much 150+ bu corn had been chopped and piled at the old cattle feeders up there. These are not cow guys, just feeders of calves to fats.

 

 East of Rockwell City it got worse fast and before we got to Ft Dodge we saw beans turning color even saw one field 50% leafless, just stems NO pods on the green stems.

 

We went up to Humboldt, and NOT good in that 20 mile stretch of road. Turned around and followed hiway 169 south to South Podunk Country. Lots of poor crops for the first 40 miles southbound out of Ft Dodge. Many beans starting to turn. Can't be good.

 

BTW they are getting done with that New grain system between Ft Dodge and I 80.

 

0817121825.jpg

 

I am not sure if those are 200,000 or 300,000 each big bins on the ends I suspect they are 300's.

 

They were ordered when the bin buster crop was forecasted by the EXPERTS.

 

I went to Ida Grove on business and right next to the place I went to was a bean field on good bottom ground. I walked out just a little ways and pulled back the canopy and found about half as many pods as should have been in that size beans this time of year. They were making beans in the pods but will be small. Probably make 30 to 35, in 60 bu field.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

I don't consider that field 'really bad'.  Granted, it isn't that great, but if you want to see REALLY bad, turn North at Grand Island, and drive up HWY 11 for about a half hour or 45 minutes.  You will see some CRP ground that was broken up for corn.  It is very easy to spot, right next to the road, no way to miss it. 

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Friend

Re: Pro Farmer + CMEGROUP + Crop Tour = ?

For those who run their mouth not knowing anything about the tour.  The expects are farmers, the trade people tag along.  They spread out over the states, each carload has a map with their route marked, the route is the same ever year.  They measure three ears, count stalks or pods and in most cases you will never know Pro Farmers were there as they are PRO'S.  Each night you can attend the summary.meeting, there is no secret reports that certain people get.  Most years you can go long on Monday, sell on Friday, people will look for the worst.  The tour average is always close to the final national yield.  I'm a farmer, I have been there.  RFD's world record tractor parade takes precedent this year.

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