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teaspoon73
Senior Contributor

Pro Farmer Crop Tour

 Pro Farmer  came out after the close with a corn yield of 147.9 bu avg. for a 12.484 billion bu crop. Soy beans 41.8 bu for 3.083 billion bu crop..  WOW what a eye opener!!

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5 Replies
Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer Crop Tour

And that's assuming the kernal length doesn't lower the corn yield further. I'd say that's worth a "WOW!"

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer Crop Tour

Much closer to reality than last year's numbers.......but they're still too high.

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67guy
Veteran Contributor

Re: Pro Farmer Crop Tour

I'll have to admit those numbers are pretty shocking.  Okay, I'm gonna play Devil's Advocate for a minute.  Last year and the year before everyone was outraged by ProFarmer's bearish yield numbers.  As it turned out last year the skepticism was well warranted.  So, this year they come out with a really bullish number.  Who is to say that their numers aren't wrong the other way this year?  I'm not saying they are wrong but last year they were a big zero and now that they came out with a bullish number this year everyone will be patting them on the back and treating them like a hero. Just food for thought.  I think national corn average comes in somewhere around 150.  Beans are really hard to guess.

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer Crop Tour

I suppose we'll do exactly what we always do, we trade the information emotionally the first few days..then caution will come back in to our minds and we'll sell off. The figures Pro-Farmer gave us..will just help continue a trend, not cause a change of direction. To answer your question about "what if they're as wrong this year as they were last year?". I don't think it matters in the long run...but if they're using the same parameters, I'd bet they're on the same side this year as they were last year..especially since they don't take kernal length into account. Once again a very interesting market...I don't know if I'm brave enough to trade it...LOL 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer Crop Tour

On the radio yesterday Chip said 200 plus farmers at the Clay Co fairgrounds very much disagreed with ProFarmers idea of what corn would yield in that area, so not everyone is patting them on the back. A lot of folks thought ProFarmer would do what they`ve done in the past and chime in with USDA.  The harvested acres on this crop is the next shoe to drop. I just keep harkining back to what David Kruse said last spring "Acres and yield won`t matter we`re gonna come up short regardless".   

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