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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Pro Farmer`s first day

The Ohio leg was scouted in the rain, corn in late milk to dough stage, highest ear counts.  They pegged it at 185, up 10% I think USDA had it at 190 something.  Pod counts up 3%. 

As consistent as Ohio is, Nebraska & South Dakota is inconsistent.  Some in dent stage, tour legs in west had 100 bushel differences in samples.   South Dakota pegged at 151 down 15%.  USDA says only 22% G/E , Chip says `so far their tour has only sampled the 22% of good and excellent`   🙂

Pro Farmer`s 7 state tour is historically 6 bushel higher than USDA which checks more states that brings final yield down.    

NCIA, locally some areas burning up, 1" of rain promised Friday/Sunday won`t be enough and may not appear at all.

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10 Replies
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

BA, the heat and dry weather is bringing the crops along so fast that we have a lot of yellow beans and brown corn already on the sand, and what is there is going to be light and chaffy. Good soils will produce good crops, but not the 260 whole fields of last year. I think my goals of $6 new crop (Currently 5.63 at a local E-plant for spring) and $15 soybeans ( currently near $14 at the CHS crushing plants) are not only obtainable, they may be on the low end of what the price will be to ration the crops.

I am irrigating off of three deep wells right now as I type and am glad I have good water. Probably should have given the crop a lot more earlier, as the window to increase yields is disappearing rapidly.

Not going to set any records for production this year.

I also walked a few fields of very tall beans and was amazed at how few pods were in the foilage. What you see is not what you get when it comes to soybeans. My short beans that I sprayed cobra on look to be more podded out than a neighboring field of chest high soybeans with pods six inches apart.

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

The pro idiot tour is a total joke as far as South Dakota goes.

One little corner of the state in the 200 bu area, what's a cherry picked deal.

Only way their  numbers work out is if 100% of the rest of the state is chopped for moo feed (they are working on it).

Only value in this clown show is it's the equivalent of the seventh inning break at a minor league baseball game where they bring some kids out of the stands for a little fun.

Just an entertainment nothing more.

wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Reality

SoDak will likely be somewhere between 125 and 130 bu per acre statewide this year. 

Pro farmer is estimating to high.  .so is USDA. 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Reality

And…..prices are too low to ration demand. 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

I defend the Pro Farmer tour, but you have to put it in context.  It`s the same route every year with different fields, it`s only 7 states, not USDA`s all corn states.  It seems to lean just a tad towards being a better yielding route compared to the total state.  I guess one way to look at it is if ProFarmer comes up with a 172 nat yield, you can pretty much deduct 6 bushel (to get USDA`s guess) and have a bullish 166 or so. 

The tour is much better that someone posting "I went to a wedding over the weekend in Milwaukee and crops  look good!!!"   no, Pro Farmer has the measuring tape out and takes counts on 100s of samples.   So, I`d give it validity.  

But let doing a stint in the military, you`ll get out of it what you put into it.

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

Don't know the route Pro Farmer takes but if they toured our area Tuesday and came back this evening there would(or should)be a difference in the findings. Last three days of heat and wind has really taken a toll in  our backyard. Supposed to rain tomorrow and tomorrow night and if it does it will help save what we have but once you lose some potential you don't put it back. 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

You`re kind of generally in the Luverne, Mn area Gurly?  Chip was in the area and I think that`s what he described as the "don`t judge the book by the cover" meaning the first couple rows by the road were different than the 35 paces into the field.   

Chip said Minnesota needs this predicted rain and can hang on to the potential if it gets it. They put Minnesota at 177 vs 195 last year and a 181  3 yr average.     Pod counts down about 6%, however seeds per lb will have the most say on yield.  One scout commented on "what kind of little bugs are these in my shoes?" and it was small pods that flaked off and fell in his shoes.

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

About 45 miles east-north east of Luverne.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Pro Farmer`s first day

Pro farmer day one.............. sounds like an intro to a Jeff Dunham skit.

Seems like a pro farmer would be way beyond day one.

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