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Senior Contributor

ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

ProFarmer still has 25% of old crop corn and soybeans left to sell, and it is completely unhedged, no puts or calls or CBOT positions on the 25%. That is for cash-only guys. For Hedgers, they are at 100% sold for both corn and beans.

On new crop, both corn and beans, they have 0%, yes, that is 0% of new crop. Highly Unusual of them to be 0% sold on new crop at this time period. They seem to have at least 10-15% of new crop priced or hedged by now, but not this year. They tend to be very conservative and business orientated in there marketing. That is generally why they have some new crop production priced/hedged by now. It takes a little risk off the table as far as the price downside and then they sometimes buy some call options to cover the upside price risk. Given the extremely risky year that the 2013 Marketing year could be, I have set aside 20 to 30 cents a bushel to use in either buying options or just straight positions with Chicago. Yes, 20 to 30 cents is $75,000 on 250,000 bushels of corn, but I would hate like hell to price new crop corn at $6 and then get a major weather problem and have corn go to $8. On 250,000 bushels, that's a loss of $500,000 of possible corn revenue. And the way my wife is spending money on her remodeling of the kitchen, that $500,000 could come in handy. It just really amazes me why women feel they need a fancy kitchen with granite countertops, a fancy 2 oven unit built in the wall, and all those fancy kitchen cabinets made out of cherry wood. Such a terrible waste of money. You can tell I am not happy with this kitchen remodel, I could use that money to buy a 160 acre very High-Quality Iowa farm that is just 2 miles down the road from some of my other farms. This farm I want to buy if the Estate Sales does happen has an overall 88 CSR Rating and lots of pattern tiling and drainage. It is really the best that Iowa has in regard to high-quality dirt, it just doesn't get any better, and the wife is throwing money down the drain by her kitchen remodeling project. However, I guess I have only myself to blame because she talked me into it, but I asked her to wait a year in case I buy this 160 acre farm, but she said the wheels are already in motion on the project and they start in 2 weeks. Boy, I really screwed myself over on that deal, but again, nobody to blame but myself!!!!!

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8 Replies
Advisor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

rsw - you are now starting to sound like those whiney little wussies North of I-80.  I mean you really have to take Unprofessional Farmers position with a grain of salt, I mean it is not like they are really risking their money, the are playing fantasy marketing, just like those who play fantasy football.

 

After last year they have decided to adopt the Hippocratic oath  "do no harm", I mean taking a zero position is the safest game for those who are supposed to "know Jack" in this game.  

 

They have nothing but a piece of paper, it is the muppets who get slaughtered.   Better wait until Larry, Moe, and Curley come out with Thursdays Edition of the USDA Comic Book.   Have a grainbelt, and relax. LMAO!  John

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Frequent Contributor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

Faust....you are da man....for those of us who make a living manipulated by corrupt corps from monsato to adm to the usda you are a blast to read....its just sad your so rite on the truth....kcco
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

Seriously? If your new kitchen is worth a 160 in Iowa, you must live in a Trump castle or something, even with granite.

Something doesnt sound right!

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Senior Contributor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

Gold faucets and gold tile are not cheap these days.  Smile.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

Your losing cred rsw. For anyone who understands math and markets, 20 to 30 cents is just enough money to gaurantee you lose it all. Go buy 6.50 puts if you really want to hedge the value of your production. Or you said, you might short futures, well hedge margin for dec corn is currently $.40 per bushel.

 

Properly managing price risk requires capital, not a puny 30 cents a bushel.

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Senior Contributor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

No, the kitchen remodel is only $35,000 to $40,000, not too bad really.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

Rsw, my crystal ball may not be what pro-farmers is, but I think PF missed a good nc pricing opportunity in soybeans back in late January when you could lock in nc beans near or at $13. I locked in some beans back then but I have been holding out on pulling the trigger on nc corn. If another couple weeks of unseasonable cold weather continues, this nc corn market could explode.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: ProFarmer/AgWeb Marketing Update/Still at 0% New Crop Sold

So, 40K can buy you 4 acres?  Wouldn"t 160 acres be more like 1 + million.  We started a 1100 sq. ft. addition + a 1100 sq. ft garage and I'm still buying dirt this spring.   I guess I can't figure out what your dillema is?????

PS   except for your silver spoon I enjoy reading your posts  and your dedication to the Ag community. 

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