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ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
I take the ProFarmer Advice newsletter and here is there advice of what to have done for the JAN.11th Report. Remember, I neither support this advice or disagree with it, it is for comparison purposes only to your own farm operations marketing position. My experience with the ProFarmer advice is that they are very conservative in there advice and probably the reason for there current market position in regards to the below. May good luck be with us on Friday, as mentioned I am only 20% sold for my 2012 corn crop and 0% sold on my 2013 corn crop.
Cash only guys:
2012 corn: 75% sold
2013 corn: 0% sold
2012 beans: 75% sold
2013 beans: 0% sold
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Hedgers only guys
2012 corn: 100% sold and no buy-backs
2013 corn: 0% sold
2012 beans: 100% sold and no buy-backs
2013 beans: 0% sold
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
General question- who are the good marketing services and brokers? I know most offer email/text/newsletters if some sort. And others are commission or per acre charge for more in depth aid. What do you guys use, if anything? I assume we get what we pay for?
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
Yes, steeringwheelholder (nice log-in name. LOL). I decided to gamble this year and that is why I am only 20% sold for 2012 corn and 0% sold for 2013. I sure hope it is a Bullish report on Friday. Although the ethanol plants are still over $7, that is due to the extremely strong basis levels in my area of Northern Iowa. In fact, they are the best for this time period that I remember since 1986. On your question, I don't think there is anyone Market Advisor that is the best, they all have there own style. What I do is follow them all, there are articles out that states where each advisor and there market position is currently and I review that. They are usually printed in the farm maganizes we get for free. Although I have not seen one printed for 3 months or so now. Guess I go more on my own market feelings, but usually are at 50% sold or more at this time, but this year is different do to the strong basis levels. Wish I could say that one advisor is better than the others, but I can't say that. They all have there good and bad points, and afterall it is our job to sort though there information and make a decision. Not a good answer to your question, but maybe some other guys can voice there opinions on the market advisors.
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
RSW, what are you going to do if the report is bearish and all your bins remain full? Where do all the guys that are storing go with 2013 crop? Or is that what gets dumped on the second train that comes through town next summer?
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
Good question Shaggy, no, I would never hold 2012 crop corn past July/2013, and I will dump it before that.probably. Even if the report is bearish, and corn takes a dive, I should be able to get at least $6 for it. $6*185bu= $1,110 in total sales for 2012- expenses= $540/acre in rough profit. Granted I take a large hit of $185/acre if corn at the ethanol plant drops from the current $7 down to $6, but still an ok profit of $540/acre. I can support my family on $540/acre in profit. My biggest expense next year is 2 kids will be starting college, but I have had 18 years to save there college money, so will be ok.
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
While selling half of your crop might help you sleep at night, it isn't gonna make you happy.... Either way the market goes on Friday you will still be half wrong.
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
Thanks guys, you have me thinking, $7 for corn at the ethanol plant today is nothing to be ashamed of getting. Sold some at $8+ a few months ago, or was it 3-4 months ago when corn was $8+. Perhaps trying for a home run is a bad thing this year. Ok, you made me rethink my marketing, a 10-15% sales before Friday, or 20% would be a good conservative sale to take some risk off my corn sales. But you guys are right, $7 is an ok price for corn. Still remember selling it for sub-$1.91 and getting those large LDP Checks from the goverment, yes $7 a bushel sure beats those days of $1.75 a bushel back in the LDP time period. And you know, I can always do a buy-back on Chicago if the report turns out to be very bullish. Thanks for the wake-up call, think I needed that.
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Re: ProFarmer-Marketing Advice
Here is what 1 guy from another website thinks may happen on Friday. He is only correct about 55% of the time, but it will be interesting to see if he is correct on Friday about his opinion below:
Friday's
report thinking .20/.30 lower to start with,,,then a KEY REVERSAL higher for
the close