ProFarmer-Marketing Advice

[steeringwheelholder]

I'm thinking it's going to be mildly bullish corn and beans and real bullish wheat. But I can't ever guess the USDA reports right. And like the last few since the hours changed, they don't act like they used to either. Wild for a few minutes then simmers down pretty quick. I'd just hate for it to be bearish all around and you miss on $7. (I took my medicine last week on stored corn--> $7.05 net).

[Faust100F]

RSW posted "Here is what 1 guy from another website thinks may happen on Friday. He is only correct about 55% of the time, but it will be interesting to see if he is correct on Friday about his opinion below:

Friday's
report thinking .20/.30 lower to start with,,,then a KEY REVERSAL higher for"

LMAO!  Maybe that is why is on that other web site.   I always enjoyed the Unprofessional Farmer site, remember the 30 ft. rope trick they use to measure  yields about August, then there is corn college whre they have some ISU (or whatever) grads teaching farmers how to grow corn.   I mean. . . if you have to go to corn college to learn how to grow crops, perhaps you should not quit your day job. 

You know everyone thinks it is important to sell high, when most of the time if you do the exact oppostie of what those "that know jack" predict   you will be O.K..  The only thing I know for sure.  The grain I have in storage yet to sell, is more than enough to keep me in the game for a few more years, if I never raise another crop. I will be handing out shovels to those brave souls who have guts enough to post their bets before the publication of USDA Comic Book on Friday.  

Well, since the whole idea by this Administration, and its USDA is to push down food costs, I  will say that they will be jacking with the Inventory numbers on corn, wheat and soybeans, and the increse will be marked up to livestock liquidation and lower exports, (that should be laughable).  

I am sure they will factor in record crops in Brazil, and Argentina but say nothing about the adverse affect weather had on the crop.   I am sure Austraila, and the Ukraine will have record crops as will Europe, and they will probably even put out a new drouth monitor, showing that RSW country and the Great Plains has experienced significant improvement in sub soil moisture going into Spring.

They are not going to allow a bull market as long as they can control it, and they can probably control it for a few more months before the fabrications and wrong assumptions catch up with them.  The big variable is dry soils in the cornbelt and the grae plains, and attempting to steal acres for each crop.  Everything we can raise will find a market, in fact, it is probably going to be very expensive to feed livestock, but demand is up and so are prices.   There will not be anything in this report that can be relied upon.  Only speculators, gamblers, and those who fleece the muppets are in this game.  

Well headed for the rural backwater for a few weeks to kill deer.  Adios Amigos. John

[rswfarms]

Yes Faust, the corn and soybeans I have in storage should also keep me in the farming game for at least a number of years even if hail wipes out 100% of my production for 2 years, maybe 3 years in a row (With layered Hail Insurance on top of my 80% coverage level). That is a nice feeling to have, makes the pressure alot easier to take. The only reason I can say that is I paid off a $700,000 farmland loan that I took out to buy 320 acres in 1999, and paid it off in 2009. Having no big heavy farmland loans is a huge help, saves me around a $90,000/year dirt mortgage payment. That was roughly $281/acre on the 320 acres for 10 years. Had alot of paid-off dirt to help make that payment. Believe it was 2001 when grain prices were very low and that paid-off dirt helped make the land payment on that $700,000 I borrowed. That was a rough year as I remember. Well, it should be an interesting Friday when the report comes out, think it is around 11:30am CDT Time, but I better check.

[rayjenkins]

If you are worried about the downside...

you can buy 6.70 Feb corn puts for about a dime

[rswfarms]

Yes, Ray. Being the little Chicken that I am. I am looking at some cheap put options to give me at least some downside protection. I budget around 20 to 30 cents per corn bushel for marketing/contracts to help me market. I put this money in a marketing accrual account at the beginning of each marketing year, and if I lose/use it up that's it, I am done for the market year. This goes with my budgeting style of running my farm operation. I haven't used any of this 20-30 cents yet this marketing year, so maybe it is time to buy some cheap downside protection with it just in case.