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Senior Contributor

Production

It seems the yield number is the one number people like to argue over, how meaningful is it without providing the harvested acre number and with it the total production number? Right now usda is using 165.3 x 83.8 = 13.86 bbu. For corn and 45.2 x 84.1 = 3.8 bbu for soybeans. Side note, when have we ever harvested more acres of soybeans then corn?

Question, do you believe we will exceed 14 billion on corn this year ? is 3.8 billion attainable for soybeans?
My answer is no to both. My belief isn't about yield on corn, acres will be the limiting factor to exceeding 14 billion. On soybeans I think the acres are out there but yield will be limited. As of now we will have new record yield on corn, yield and production on soybeans, we have a couple of months yet, actual three for some of this crop but its condtions now that we have to look at to figure out what we will have. I don't care if you agree or disagree with me, I want other peoples thoughts without all the sniping. This isn't a poll.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Production

I really can't make a good case to disagree with you. Except that the yield for soybeans IMO won't make 45 more like 43 and as low as 38 is quite posssible.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Production

I believe that harvested acres of corn will be 83.5 million based on 90.750 million planted acres (down due to prevented planting) and a harvested level of 92%. Then the yield becomes key and I do not think it will be over 167 bushel per acre. This is based partly on the areas shown to not receive much moisture through mid August not having enough poor moisture holding capacity to draw from. We could see a final yield below 165.0 and production in the 13.750 billion area.  Yields could also drop from an early freeze.  It is clear that certain areas of IL will have record yields but I do not think (based on KSU vegatation maps and current forecasts and several key areas getting less than 75% of normal rainfall the past 30 days) that IL can carry us to a yield anywhere above 170. 

 

Soybean acres are interesting as some prevented planting in northern areas is possible but also we could see more double crop acres. Using 84.5 million acres and a 44.0 yield and a 99% harvested level causes production of 3.680 billion bushel. Of course weather will be the key but it is too early in my opinion to get a really good handle on soybean yields.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Production

I have decided my corn is going to make 195, after all I am in an I state even if it is a fringe part of the state. 

 

The natl yield needs bumped up. I have also decided  not to count any acres not up to that standard. Acres planted should only be a number to brag about at the coffee shop in the spring. By fall just  do the  arithmetic on the best ten acres.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Production

I don't have a good handle on DC beans but know much of Kansas was supposedly knocked out due to rains delayijng harvest of wheat. Maybe that's changed. Have heard of really crappy beans in the Delta from 12" of rain.

 

Just to add to the mix.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Production

Local dairies here are trying to buy more silage and high moisture corn out of the field. Must be on sale. Maybe a lower % cut for grain.
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