Projected Corn Carryout

[WCMO]

Maybe 20 years ago, based on projected demand and usage/exports, a 1 billion corn carryout depressed prices.  With current projectins for demand and usage/exports, what level of projected carryout is now considered "excessive"???

[marketeye]

WCMO,

Well, the expected 2.0 billion bushels carryout for the end of marketing year 2015 would classify as excessive, I think.

Mike

[vandenplas]

30 years ago, a 600 million bushel carryout was extremely bearish.  

[Waterlooiowa]

If we get another cool late year where harvest starts 3 or 4 weeks late a billion extra bushels could get used up before the new crop comes in,but because BILLION is a big round number it will always get attention,even if it is just a months worth of corn or what it takes to keep the pipeline flowing.

I think some of the analysts have a magic number of days use that they use,I think it is somewhere around a months use,think they cut the meal supply a little tight this year.

[Clayseia]

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@vandenplas wrote:

30 years ago, a 600 million bushel carryout was extremely bearish.  

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This is a completely baseless statement.  In the years between 1975 and 1995, the LOWEST ending stocks number was 829 million.  426 million in 95-96 sent corn to all time highs.  Want to go back further?  How about 50 years?  1964-65 ending stocks were 1.146 BILLION, with usage of only 3.875.