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Senior Contributor

Re: Purple swan?

Palouser, you are good at keeping us confused. About 6 weeks ago with SRW in the hole, you claimed you had sold a significant portion of your 12'13 White Wheat, guess here it is priced off of Chicago SRW,and  almost always at a premium.   Today you post you have lots of wheat to sell!   Ok but there is the appreaence you worry more about looking good compared to when you actually market your crop. Wheat has been in decline for over 2 years. This is a small rally against that, at least so far anyway.

You have taught us that posting selective headlnes, all bullish or being bullish 100% of the time, does not a bull market create  >>  see posts of last 18 months/.

 

Regards Pritch.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Purple swan?

I sold SOME wheat last fall. Less than $15 k worth, then stopped due to price decline. Yes, I have the majority of the last two years wheat.

 

I tried to sell in May of 2013 but the Monsanto RR wheat escape shut down the market so nothing happened. I tried to sell the afternoon before the news became widely public. Bad luck I guess. First time I never got a response from buyers but I guess they had heard what was up before I heard.

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Senior Advisor

Get it right Pritchh/Artie!

Pritchh/Artie

 

You need to write things down as I NEVER say what you think I say - it seems - though you are so concerned about it. Write these things down and the post and keep them in your files. I looked back at my posts to try and verify your claims, and as usual you are misrepresenting me. This is what I said just after the first of the year. 

 

Re: Got your wish Palouser

:smileylol:

 

It's worked every time for me. Time will tell if this is going to become a market bell weather signal.

 

As I mentioned I stopped selling wheat before the end of the year. Everything is covered so I don't need to sell for cash flow. I'm long wheat. I will guess that if the usual pattern follows I'm not likely to sell anymore before next summer.

 

And ...

 

Thinking strategically

Farmerguy, it would probably not be wise to try and speak for me as you don't see the markets as I do.

 

Given up on wheat? Hardly. It's what I do. True, I'm done selling wheat for awhile. Everything's covered so I can bide my time. I'm usually a holder of wheat when the market is down. And a seller when it goes up. I've done this before and it always turns out. Might not this time but I've always been aware of that.[end quotes]
 
 
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Honored Advisor

Re: Get it right Pritchh/Artie!

It took me a while to start understanding your code.  "Everything's covered" seems to mean the bills are paid or have a payment method other than selling wheat, Instead of all my wheat is priced.  When that phrase "Everything's covered" follows "I am done selling wheat for a while" it led me to believe you had it all sold.  It sounded smart as the trend remained down for a long time.

 

I made the same mistake --------- I thought you did well last year.  Smiley Happy

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Get it right Pritchh/Artie!

I think I figured out what "purple swan" means.  Purple is the color of royalty so a purple swan means we're royally screwed!!

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Senior Advisor

Re: Get it right Pritchh/Artie!

Hmmm. I see your point. If something's 'covered' I would assume a hedge against risk maybe. Not sold.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Get it right Pritchh/Artie!

After you wrote with more detail I figured it out and have understood better since.

 

 

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