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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Pushing planting decisions

If your looking at choices on planting acres acres,,,,,, these seem to be weighing on the decisions.....

They point out the dilema ahead..... Usda will address it in March.... It will be a very interesting report

 

The basis is not reflected in these cost price per bushel levels --- Corn would be 50 cents lower and wheat would be 80-90 cents per bushel lower

 

With those into the comparison,,,, how many acres of beans may there be planted in 2017?

 

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8 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

Is there anyone out there that bases their planting decissions on commodity price?   Like "I can get $9.50 for beans, but only $3.50 for corn, so I`ll plant alot more beans than I first planned"  I know Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffins report that alot, but around here, I`d say plans get set and you could pretty much know the crop that will be in a field in 2027, barring a weather hiccup that would change it.   We are so boring and predictable   🙂

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

yes there is BA.........some of us look at the number and what looks the most profitable.  it is silly to plant something that

does not run a chance to make you income.......although it's getting more difficult all the time.

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

So what do you guys do, lock in that better say "bean price"?  See, if you don`t, by fall it may well be totally inverse of what you`re expecting...it almost certainly will flip-flop by fall.  To me losing the rotation and having that extra expense and hassle on a monoculture wouldn`t be worth it.  Corn on corn costs more to raise and less yield...beans on beans, forget it.  Maybe the wheat guys pull it off, if you`ve raised wheat 10 yrs and get pulled into some $9.50 beans I could see that.   But those that did it last year would face "beans on beans".

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

Yes if possible but seldom with beans...... cheapo is in a tougher spot than I because the sw usually has one of the strongest basis in the country for milo & corn.

Our beans are planted with quick sale in mind so we don't tie up storage for our feedlot commodity.....always looking to price them.   ... and the number of acres is always based on the Nov price and the trend.... But the hidden issue BA is we have a hotter dryer climate.  We cannot handle the acres available if all in beans.   Now we are 90% corn & wheat and 10% beans.... We may double our acres of beans on fringe ground.  And that might not seem like much but we are seeing several large irrigators around us planning 15-20 % about 2000 acres per farm) in areas without many beans. because the corn is bleeding red ink.

Normally not going to happen like your example. 

 

When it normally happens is wheat.

We make a lot of decisions with July wheat prices in mind...... we always have secondary options for wheat...... it is cheaper to put in and the fertilizer is not lost until spring growth starts.... We can kill it and go to a fall crop without much loss except planting costs on thats saved seed.  We can graze it out. and go to anything if it is irrigated.

High wheat price then harvest and double crop if rain is good or limited irrigation is available...  Corn is usually reliable to give us +40cent basis  and more with a direct contract.  We seldom see this ugly "opportunity" 🙂       -45 cent basis.

Ray Jenkins stopped by on his way to the sights west.  We discussed this very issue..... Has ethanol and the additional processing we do to corn in Iowa changed the basis structure (here where ddg's go to be fed) for corn as a commodity.  I hope I am not damaged too much by the answer to that question.  Our additional $200-250 per acre of expenses give us some of the best yields in the US.  But the more $ per acre you have invested the more flesh you loose as the belt tightens.

Ray might dispute me but I am sure he infered that I could stand a little more trimming.  Hope I can survive it.

 

We enjoyed the short visit and hope to see them again without imposing on their time....

 

 

 

 

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

Corn and beans, beans and corn.  Not much change here.  All we can do in the heart of the corn belt is try to hedge if the money is attractive.  Except for a few niche marketers, most don't find it profitable to grow wheat or other third crops.  Too bad.  Once livestock was our main crop, and planting was corn, hay, timothy, oats and maybe that new-fangled stuff, soybeans.  Now, we can't even use livestock as the "third" crop.  Too bad.  We need a new farming population.  We old timers are part of the problem, not the solution. 

 

I've reduced my acreas enough that I'm going to go all corn one year and beans the next.  I can keep one bin and rent out the rest, and I have no problem renting them out.  2017is the corn year.

 

 

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Planting And Weather

I've seen at least one reference to moving into El Nino, but the NOAA doesn't seem to support that.  NOAA says ENSO will be La Nina in February and trend to neutral through July.  If it's neutral in July, any change won't be soon enough to alter crop growing for this year.

 

The drought is forecast to ease in the southeast and intensify in Oklahoma and central Missouri.  Otherwise, the call at this time is not for drought.

 

Might still be a good year for wheat in the plains, as soybeans like at least a little water.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

you know, what we need is a couple of new crops.........but the problem, we jump on it, and make too much of it.

 

need to talk to some of my friends in the ivory towers of biotechna........vegtables are big.....and in some cases kind of high,

 

so let's do some tinkering like we used to ........i remember the plant that had tomatos on top, potatoes on the bottom......

 

lets see......have wheat plants that didn' have wheat heads, but mini  corn, like on the salad bar, or maybe little sweet pickles....

 

corn is a little bit stronger plants.........have mini watermelons on them......but they also do good producting sweet corn......

 

milo......don't know.......maybe peaches...would be inefficient tho.....just one peach on top of each plant.....

 

just getting to the point, no good choices.....

 

but you know.......i am up late at night with my back at times.....and i see these shows with all these little kids with swolen bellies,

just dying, no food........maybe our problem is transporation and politics ???

 

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Pushing planting decisions

One problem with all these neat new ideas is many of them are niche markets or are the froth on the beer.  That is, it won't take much production to make the product worth less than it takes to grow it.  Oh, sorry, I guess it's the old cynic in me.

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