QE3 and dry weather and acres and demand.........

[Mizzou_Tiger]

think about it............

[giolucas]

O.K......

[Doug N]

I think corn acres are going to be huge.  Beans can not compete with corn, especially in any higher rent areas.  The lower prices go the more people will be pressed into planting corn.  Beans are not a lot better than breakeven here right now. Also the dry fall will let us have a better chance of getting in next spring and if guys get done planting quicker they are more apt to plant a little bit more corn IF seed is available

[junior359]

I have wondered for sometime about QE3 what are your thoughts MT I personally think it could add alot to al commods  maybe 25% or more?????  really quick . have noticed alot of articles popping up in mags and especially local papers lately bout low production numbers this last year and stocks ratios seems to be really increasing lately and in places I usually don't see these kinda articles

As for me personally if corn prices don't strengthin a little buy spring will prolly be heavy on beans

[KsGC]

Here's some more to think about.

  My seed guy stops by today and says the industry is already having trouble sourcing seed.

He quoted low yields and dry weather. And it sounds like South American production could be in for weather trouble too.

[67guy]

There is some truth to that.  Seed companies struggled to have enough seed to plant what we planted last year.  They planted more seed this year but production problems were huge so I think the extra acres were offset by the production issues.  RR corn was really tight last year and seed companies geared up and grew a lot more of it make sure we had enough refuge for 2012.  Guess what?  RR corn is extremely tight again.  The other side of the story is that there will be more than enough corn to plant 95 or 96 million acres but guys might have to settle for some stuff that has been in storage for three or four years.  A really large corn acreage would also be a real blessing for small seed companies that never sell out of their corn.  They will likey have new customers buying seed from them just to get their hands on enough corn.  So, in conclusion, corn is very tight and top numbers are already sold out or well on their way to being sold out.  There will be corn to plant but it might be a little on the old side.  RR refuge corn for traited corn will be very short.  Like 2011 there will not be enough RR refuge corn to go around and guys will have to cheat a little on the 20%.  Not a perfect situation but if weather cooperates there will be massive corn acres in 2012.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

what, you mean inputs might not come down with grain prices..........HMMMMM..........o thats rights, the world is still using a lot of inputs, even if domestically grain prices are being beat down by all this EU crap.......

IF IF IF, the EU blows up, grains will have to decouple from the dollar, maybe not completely, but we have seen a strengthening dollar and grains are still holding their ground as hard as they can..........

QE3 is coming very soon in some form or fashion, unless the EU gets it together today and fixes confidence, its coming fast and hard..........market will price it in at some point and the fed will not fail to deliver........heck we have had QE1 and 2 and our dollar is strengthening, why not, its all electronic anyway, just hit a few keys now and then and bam........

little side note, watching CNBC for a few this AM.............even those guys can not believe the EU is just sliding down this hill headed for a lake...........they are fed up with all this attention on those socialist SOB's...........literally watching in disbelief.........

I never thought I would say it, but we could be headed for too big too fail, too late to save over there...........its one thing to cut an addict off.........its another when the addict is the size of the EU..........the funny part is, those that dont want anything to do with EU bonds will lose the most in the end..........they think they will be fine on their own, rest of the world will turn on them if it ultimately melts down and bury them with a currency war, and most of those EU nations dont have jack to bring to the table, thus they will be buried..........but yeah theres pride too, that counts right, always good to stand tall as the ship goes down, you can get the last breath then.......

EDIT:  if there is distain in this post, well maybe a little, but its because I too am tired of the EU crap.........you wanna trade things lower thats fine, but do it for legitmate reasons, not because a bunch of socialist seem to have the stage right now.........

[vrbuck]

We could talk we to infinity all we want. It doesn't need we will get it. The swaying breeze of politics is as much a fundamental as supply and demand, politics say it ain't gonna happen. Bernanke had already been called a traitor by some congressmen, how can he explain another round of this dog poo called quantitative easing. If your holding and hoping PS3 will bail you out of a bad marketing plan, you are in trouble.

[hardnox604008]

I'm not worried about QE 3 igniting a bull market.

I am worried about it giving whiplash if you're short.

That is all the games have accomplished- here or in Europe- made it challenging to be short comms, financials, currencies.

They haven't changed the game at all.

So I think any strategy has to integrate that possiblitity- being able to withstand a fierce countertrend move if da boyz choose to light one off.

I also think that each attempt to reflate will get less traction- it is more a trick to try to reignite anmial spirits than it is anything real.

The beast is tired.

[Palouser]

I'm not counting on there being QE3. I'm not counting on dry weather, though certainly possible several places on the globe. I am counting on demand. And I'm certainly not counting on production. Just way too early.

And if it comes to that, current reserves are simply not enough for sizable disruptions.

Plan accordingly. Now tell me what your plan is.