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Veteran Contributor

Question for Mike

Mike I am hearing that 2012 will make it into the drought hall of fame like 88. I remember 88 well. Yes it did break in later half of July. My question is does the floor people think this will end up like 88. In 88 the CFTC ruled you do not have to deliver on your short positions.(July 89 ruling) only sell on paper cannot buy). This all leads me believe something terrible is coming down the line. I am thinking maybe an embargo on grains. I have never seen so many fluffy traders in this market (coming directly from the 88 ruling). It all amounts to this the crop is going down fast and what are they going to do to get out of this major fib. Thanks as always.

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3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Question for Mike

I have no idea, dude. I'll dig around a bit to see what I can find.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Question for Mike

I can't speak for anything except what I have personally seen, but I notice that the crops, especially corn (and alfalfa) have been going downhill, FAST.  2 weeks ago, it looked great, last week OK, but lately, every day of no rain is taking its toll.  There are irrigators, having trouble keeping up already, and it isn't even July yet.  Last week we had a day of 101.8 degrees, with 35 MPH winds, and 35% humidity, and it seems that once a crop hits the last of the moisture the roots can reach, it goes downhill, fast.  I'd guess that a 25% of the corn went from 'good' to 'fair' or worse, in under a week (dryland).

Yesterday, the humidity was so low, that when it was 85 degrees out, the irrigation pipes weren't even 'sweating', and the water comes up at 55 degrees, meaning the dew point was below that.

Do you think the board is factoring in how 'fast' the condition is dropping, or is it just a local thing, that doesn't cover a large area?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Question for Mike

If you are referring to the board of trade......no they obviously aren't concerned yet.  This is train wreck waiting to happen.

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