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waltrip92
Contributor

Question fpr Mizzou Tiger

Whats you take on the winter dryness we are seeing (cental Midwest) ?

I relaize planting is at least 3 months away for the central

Midwest and longer north but this weather is just

little sereal to me at this time of year give the production

problems of the world ( IE S.A., Ukraine understand wheat is questionable cond.)

. Whats your thoughts on

shortage of certain crops thru next year if US & Ukraine both have

doughts on par with last year here , and year before in Ukraine?

Thanks for your thoughts

JB

 

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4 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Question fpr Mizzou Tiger

western cornbelt is pretty dry..........NW IA profile is bone dry..........this could spell trouble for the western cornbelt, as they have benefitted from abnormally higher summer precip compared to decades past.........

 

plains wheat will be interesting........a good stand in many areas.........some decent fall moisture..........it can be very misleading.........their profile is still pretty short and a thick stand of tillered wheat in the fall can be a bad thing if it doesnt rain till June or July...........

 

as for the cornbelt in general..........its still a crap shoot..........timely rains can make a dry year look good..........

 

the bigger wild card is La Nina..........it never went neutral and could be strengthening here for the next few months and most forecast seem to agree that it sticks around into March-April timeframe...........but may start to disappear around June..........probably know a little more in March what the summer could look like..........

 

IMO given our present situation that grains will be tight going into July-Sept timeframe.............if the US pulls out a monster 2012 crop then we are back to par but I wouldnt say we are overly supplied............

 

we thought 2011 was the year of the macros, but I got this feeling 2012 could blow it out of the water.........the EU has to figure something out soon or its done.........the can is crushed and can not be kicked down the road unless they get aggressive and they have not...........we have Iran to deal with.........and election.........China's demand and growth.......and US woes.........

 

 

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waltrip92
Contributor

Re: Question fpr Mizzou Tiger

Then you and I are seeing pretty close to the same on

production . Variables are large but we need a home run on production

which I see as a up hill battle.with current weather.

I remeber a year in the 80s this dry and we put NH3 on in Feb.

I believe it was 83 another drought year.

So time will tell us what it is to be..

How long will USDA kick can down the road is

another thing  I see if 2012 is not  trendline production

JB

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NW IA
Frequent Contributor

Re: Question fpr Mizzou Tiger

NW IA profile is definately bone dry as well as most of Minnesota and the Dakotas.  We currently have no snow cover.  We did pick up .9" rain in December along with 5" snow.  We will need some timely spring rain to replenish the subsoil moisture.  I guess if we were to have a drought, winter would be my choice.

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Question fpr Mizzou Tiger

Dry here in Cent.  Nebraska.  To top it off, the temperatures are above normal, which is preventing a deep, fracturing frost.  Lots of compaction last harvest may not be broken up as well as we would like.  Also, the freeze/thaw cycle of the top couple inches seems to be drying things out.  Does anyone know if moisture can migrate out of frozen ground?  It seems like that is what is happening, the moisture is working its way toward the surface, where it gets dried out.

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