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bkadds
Advisor

Question regarding corn price differential.

What do you guys see happening to July old crop corn price after May goes off the board? With there being no carry in this market it seems like there is not all the corn out there that has been reported. Does July have a twenty cent upswing when May expires? Just seems odd the way things are acting. Anybody else feel similarly?
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3 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Question regarding corn price differential.

The cash price will not change because of the front month used, the basis will just be adjusted.

 

I was at the local Gavilon grain terminal this morning delivering the load of beans I sold two days ago and at 10:00am I was one of three loads of anything that I saw dumped in a 45 minute period. The farmers were probably on a planter etc.

 

I went back and picked up a ck a little after 3 this afternoon and it was totally devoid of any incoming activity.

 

I think the grain left is in very strong hands and will take =+$15 beans and +$7 corn to get much going on for a few days till even that is gone.

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justinbarnes710
Veteran Contributor

Re: Question regarding corn price differential.

bkadds-  I believe July will be well supported going forward... Especially vs. Dec.  Anybody who was bull spreading has had the chance to unwind.  Those who are left will hold.  Old crop stocks are forecasted to be 800 mil. bu.  New crop could be abundant.

 

It should be interesting for a few more months.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Question regarding corn price differential.

Our coop has been pricing corn based on the July option for well over a month now. About two weeks ago they started pricing the soy bid off of the july. Perhaps the volitility of the front months are a problem for them or the people they sell to.

 

It seems like they switch to a new crop month earlier each year as a basisw for old crop corn and beans.

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