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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 132
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: Rabbit or Ground Hog marketer

Yup is is bad out and about

But this morning on the TV show ag day there was some talking head from PERDUE that said it was perfect weather wise. 

I wounder if he he has backyard itis  he might look to his west at Iowa and north to the swamped parts of Minnesota.

 

Up here the rain total for april + may +june + the 2.2 we just got yesterday in july adds to 23.5 + or - some have more some less.

 

Drown outs ever where replants gone yup it is just grand.

 

plenty of prevent plant TOO

Senior Contributor
Posts: 383
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Rabbit or Ground Hog marketer

I couldn’t agree with BA more. Sure a lot of us could have pre sold a crop we didn’t have and ran with less profit than production costs ( which is no profit). However never had a bean in the ground in May plus with the local cops hitting us with 40+ on basis I think the best I could have gotten was 10.10. That’s terrible better than 8, but still terrible. A loss is a loss no matter 1$ or 5$. The fact that we’re discussing taking smaller losses than larger is the problem to begin with. Corn is outrageous has been for last 6 years there’s no way up here to make a profit. On avg, were at 700$+ an acre. My 10 year yield avg. for the county is 167bu do the math it’s simple. Almost majority of soybeans and wheat now for the locals, not by choice, but because we’ve had to adjust to this market by making smart profitable choices. Those who haven’t don’t have to worry about it anymore their bankrupt and out of business. Now I’m sure a few of you on here were handed your daddy’s farm or a nice settlement when they passed, it’s just not the same for the average farmer who had nothing to start with. Take a minute and look at the big picture it’s just a matter of time for us all unless something changes not on our end. Some things can be adjusted and altered to bandage the bleeding, but honestly it’s only delaying the inevitable.
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Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: Rabbit or Ground Hog marketer

Don't let the science get in the way gents. The Purdue guy is right, this is the best looking crop on June 30th in history, with the exception of a few counties in Iowa. (Less than 1% of the US growing area according to today's crop condition report).

 

Just saying that the price is set by money flows and right now the end user is watching the money flow in and specs are watching it flow out. Specs are still long about a Bil bu of corn (910mil) so they had a rough day today :-)

 

As a farmer, this is just not a day to sell anything. Believe it or not, there will be lots of areas running low on moisture by 7/15 unless the pattern shifts, with lots of heat. Today might be the best day of 2018 to buy corn, certainly not a day to sell it. The (now a little less rich) rich traders in NY, CHI, Bejing, were selling it today.  :-)

 

And, let's be real, probably a few well connected folks to Canada that sold Friday because they knew about today's tariff announcment was coming. 

 

All that said, this is a lame way to run a trade conflict. Temporary raise the loan rate to 10-4 and you don't hurt the farmers at all. Of course, that would require there to be a plan in place before the conflict is started.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,627
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Rabbit or Ground Hog marketer

Yes Illinifarmer, if it turns off hot & dry melting some yield off and if an agreement on trade is reached, probably looking at $1 better corn and $2.50 beans, then the gurus will come with the classic "I had my clients lift their hedges 2 weeks ago".    The flipside is corn could have a "2" in front of it and beans a "7" in front of it the rest of the year.   But if the only way I`m going to make it is to sell bushels I don`t have, perhaps I should quit now.   Smiley Happy