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Senior Advisor

Rain delays in S America causing concern

And this is what the 'while you're making other plans' looks like. There is no certainty at this point. If delays continue I would expect China to react by ramping up buying (what's not already committed). They will try and buy dips and slow periods in this case but, they will buy, and sooner rather than later. They won't try to corner the market but that's because they do have reserves - and that's why they have them. They don't want to cause tsunamies in the market place unless driven to it. But they won't get behind the 8 ball.

 

Concern grows about delay to S. American soy sowings -Oil World

30-Oct-2012 08:30

  • Rain may reduce soybean area in Argentina, Brazil
  • Risk growing of cut to forecast big 2013 soy crops

 

HAMBURG, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Concern is growing that rain will cut soybean plantings in Brazil and Argentina, reducing the outlook for large soy crops in 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialise,” it said.

This is partly because the forecast 5 million hectare or 11 percent increase in southern hemisphere soybean plantings for the harvest in early 2013 may not be achieved due to rain in South America, while yields may be lower than forecast, it said. ...... [continues]

 
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Senior Advisor

Re: Rain delays in S America causing concern

http://www.agweb.com/article/soybean_switch_brazil_set_to_outpace_us_production/

 

 

then this

 

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/weather-woes-hit-hopes-for-huge-sa-corn-soy-crops--5158.html

 

 

ambulance chasers at best.........

 

this idea we are smarter, faster, and stronger than mother nature and thinking a crop is made before the seed hits the ground is getting old...........

 

IMO the weather is getting more volitile and violent instead of docile and calm...........that type of pattern does not equal trendline yields...........sure we may finally hit one outta the park at some point.........but it comes at a price of 9 years of hell..........

 

peak corn anyone.........

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Honored Advisor

Re: Rain delays in S America causing concern

It looks like the yields for this coming year's crops in South America have "peaked" already.....with folks already lowering the record breaking estimates.  Gee, where have we seen this before?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Rain delays in S America causing concern

Yes, MT- worldly volatility (including weather) doesn't even peak till around the end of  this (2012) calendar year when our solar system makes it to a particular axis point in it's revolution around the black hole in center of the Milky Way....then ramps down just as slowly as it ramped up -- 5-8 yrs. the more even keel weather likely will not return till 2017-2020.... Thanks for the quick reminder that time and seasons and generations are relatively slow compared to news flashes.

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