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Rob SC NE
Contributor

Rain in Chicago

Roy Smith's column today brings up something I've wondered about from time to time. Rain in Chicago, so to speak, can put a damper on commodity prices, even though out west here it could be dry as a bone and the crops headed south. Not really complaining about the traders' psychology, just sayin'....

 

It's encouraging to see that the basis is still strong here in Nebraska. Roy thinks price action next week will be a good singal on whether this "rain in Chicago" theory holds water.

 

Today, the "rain in Chicago" and debt crisis took prices lower, but overall when prices can hang together in the face of negative news, it can indicate a bullish trend.

 

Where's this thing headed now, do you think?

 

Rob

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7 Replies
frankne
Veteran Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

Good to hear from you Rob.Far as rain in Chi. don't think its like it used to be everything had to pass through the floor.Now you can be have way around the  world and do an order.I bet 75% of orders are done electronic.

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Rich in Mo
Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

Mondays crop conditions should have more poor/very poor, but if the long range shift in weather pattern to cooler and wet for the dry areas of the corn belt is still there Monday, there will probably be pressure.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

from a chart perspective, i think corn is done unless we take out 7.04 cz next week.  a weekly close under 6.40 will be the indicator inmho. beans have one more stab higher.

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

Before you start talking about technicals you better go out and check your pollination of the corn, i checked mine, it wasn't worth a darn. 

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

high yields, pollnation problems have been talked about for a week here there and everywhere. lets see what happens next week.

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teaspoon73
Senior Contributor

Re: Rain in Chicago

       The second week of August when the feild surveys start and people from the trade get to actuually look at how well things have pollenated and you get the usda's next paper guess reallity will hit. There are lots of fields in the Dakota's that haven't even tasseled yet.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Rain in Chicago

I predict that we will have the most discussion and disagreement about early yeild calls that we've ever had.  The crop got in late, was short on N, turned around and looked better, was very hot during pollination, got humid and is showing the beginning of leaf disease, has Japanese beetles clipping corn silks.....and that is just here.  Other places will have the notes arranged to play a different song.  Each of us will believe, perhpas rightly, that our call is right......for us.

My guess is we won't know until the combines roll this year.

But that won't stop us from guessing or discussing it. 

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