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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Rally Is Not Surprising...

given the conditions the crop has had to grow in this spring.  

 

I am learning to enjoy retirement, and just got back from nearly a month in Florida, taking the grand kids to Disney.  I didn't see to many other grandparents getting off of Space Mountain, or the Manta at Sea World.  I did ask my cardiologist before I went if it would be safe for me to do the coasters, given all the warnings they give about riding them, and all the warning pertain to me.  He said, "Go for it!"  And it was still fun.

 

What's not so much fun is seeing the crop from Minnesota to there.  In a word - Bad.  Southern WI and here in MN are the best crops I saw all the way down and back.  I saw some of the prevent plant stuff, but nothing like we had here in MN and WI a few years back.  No doubt that it is out there though.  

 

Anyway, thought that I would just check in.  It's been a while since I did.  Weatherwise, the worse thing that could happen now to a lot of the crop, is that the rain shuts off.  I haven't done my research, as I'm not involved in it like I was.  But it does look like that possiblity is in the works.  Hopefully, you guys continue to get some timely rains that will allow the roots to follow the moisture down as things dry up.  I know here, we were without rain for just a couple of days, and I was surprised to already see the effects on my garden peas.  I didn't turn on the sprinkler, but I was about to.

 

The motorhome is still a great way to travel, especially with the kids.  Maybe I'll get a chance to get away a few more times this summer - right now, I'm still trying to catch up on being gone for a month.  One thing for sure, the weeds in my garden liked me being gone, my flock of birds - not so much....

 

Jen

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7 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

Glad to have you check in.   Nothin' like having boots on the ground to tell you what conditions are really like. I think we have seen the highest acreage report and the highest conditions report for the year. BTW, I'm sure there were quite a few bears that were surprised........and probably went into hibernation.  Smiley Wink

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HortonGordelson
Senior Contributor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

Hi, and welcome back even if it's just for a visit.  I would be thrilled to hear your take on the current weather.

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Wind
Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

Jen,  what about this smoke from Canada wild fires blocking our Sun?  Has been for a few days and will last a few more.  Sure keeps the temps. down.  I ate three ears of sweet corn from my patch yesterday.  Should have a lot by the 4th.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

I tihnk many market analysts were surprised by the strength of the rally.  We'll have to see how this shakes out, but it may take a lot of info to keep prices up here.  

We have to assume all the speculation about Missouri bean acres is in the rally.  It will take a lot of continued bad news to keep prices high.

 

The question is, will producers sella t these prices?

 

One can assume that users will now start looking for new crop.  Cron basis is already down.  This rally will likely shake some old crop corn out of the bins only to meet a lower basis.  Beans are likely the only thing holding corn prices up, and as bean prices get chewed and digested it may be that corn will face a lot of down-side pressure.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

Hi Jen

I am ready for a pattern shift

With today's rain I am approaching 35-40 inches since May 4th

It's hard to wrap your head around
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

The Gulf is shut off, so it should limit at least the hugh rain events across the Midwest for the next week or two.  That doesn't mean that an area that gets a thunderstorm over it that just sits there won't get drenched - it means that broad spectrum areas - whole states or regions - should not see a big rain event for the next few weeks.  It is summertime, after all.

 

One thing that I didn't mention yesterday, was how poor and far behind the beans looked coming up from Florida.  It wasn't until I got to (far) Northern IL and WI that I saw beans starting to canopy.  Mostly, I saw beans that were still in the 4 trifoliate stage or so - not where I like to see beans coming upon the 4th of July.  Here in SE MN, most of the beans in 30 inch rows are about to canopy.  Alot of corn chest high - things here do look really good this year.  Janesville, WI area looked even better than here though, but you don't need to go much north of Madison, WI and you see the crops change really fast - just too much water.

 

I was actually quite shocked on how poor the crops looked coming through IL.  I took I24 up from Atlanta, to I57 to I74 to I39.   Lots of yellow corn, small beans.  Some PP acres.  Drown out areas.  Not good.  

 

Things are going to start to dry out.  There are still some lighter afternoon showers in the forecast - but these will be more of the hit or miss types after today and tomorrows (mostly) MO and S IL rain event passes through.  We just have to hope that things don't shut off completely.  Right now, weather systems are moving nicely across the US.  We'll just have to wait and see how long the Gulf moisture is going to be shut off by an Upper Air high forming over the SW US and TX.  It that decides to stick around past the next two weeks, it could get very interesting.

 

Jen

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Rally Is Not Surprising...

MT,  It is tough when your in the heart of a problem....

 

And it is never as bad when it happens as it is rebuilding...

 

The cash flow it takes to get repaired and reproductive hammers net worth......

 

We see it in slow motion in drought areas......3+yrs of poor crop and survival insurance with premiums rising and suddenly it starts raining........ no cash flow to reload.   The year After it is over we see what we really lost.  

 

 

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