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Honored Advisor
Posts: 2,811
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Random thoughts

[ Edited ]

Many market analysts have been picking a bottom in these prices about every other day for the last month or so. Yet, down we go. They have ALL been wrong.

 

The traders seem to want to inflict pain.  They are succeeding.

 

I bought a gallon of milk yesterday for $1.28.  It seems that the market wants grain farmers to feel the pain of the dairy guys.   They are succeeding.

 

With these low prices for corn, E15 should be a lock.   Time for the EPA and others to get busy and give us more clean burning, renewable fuel.

 

Gas prices are up.  Oil companies are making a killing.

 

There should be absolutely NO price increases for ANY food products with the grain prices where they are at.

 

Many endusers should be making good money at these prices.

 

President Trump keeps winning and continues to keep many of his campaign promises.  Let's hope he really wants the American farmer to succeed.

 

Perhaps the way out of this China trade thing is for China to actually buy more of our farm commodities......not less.

 

The world carryout in corn is the lowest since 2012, yet here we are with some of the lowest corn prices in that timeframe.  However, the USDA at the first sign of an all-out price rally in grain will somehow find 300 million bushels of corn somewhere.

 

If this downturn in grain prices continues for very long, there is going to be thousands of older farmers retiring.  There will be lots of farmland for sale.

 

If you are one of those farmers retiring, don't be the last one to have a farm sale.   There won't be anyone left to buy your farm.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 27
Registered: ‎09-26-2013
0

Re: Random thoughts

What traders are you talking about? There's no trading floor anymore... the market follows what the trend is doing...the falling prices are a direct result of the tariff our government is implementing... there's no fundamental reason why grains prices have fallen so much...do you really think that the EPA is gonna help farmers? if they did, there wouldn't be any one who lobbied for coal and oil running it...remember the tax cuts will benefit the rich permanently, while the middle class tax cut will change in a few years.... 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,374
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Random thoughts

I "picked the bottom" when prices were much higher, I was wrong there`s apparently too many good to excellent crops out there.   I see corn was down 6 and beans down 15 overnight, just like every other day, I reckon when they got us on the run it`ll go lower & longer than most think.

 

I`m not at all ready to throw in the towel.  I do want to say though that "this" is farming now and in the future, boom bust cycles with a minority of boom times.  If corn went to $5 next week, they`d be renting $400 land and buying $13,000 land like it`s goin out of style.

 

I saw a building with 5,000 Canadian feeder pigs yesterday, with their pretty orange ear tags, oh it was a long way from the border.  But, those placing the pigs aren`t effected by the northern Iowa southern Minnesota cash hog prices.   Probably the direction of cash grain farming too one day, "this" is just our "8 cent hog" day of reckoning.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,129
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Random thoughts

Maybe  moving  from  a  Des Moines  job   to   Beijing ,  should  have  been  a tip  off  ?  ?     

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,409
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Random thoughts

Yeah, I cashed my hedges too early, too.  Makes me feel foolish now.  Now, I'm not crazy about getting in on either side of the trade.  If we get a rally, I might sell some more but I am not counting on it.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 27
Registered: ‎09-26-2013
0

Re: Random thoughts

hey buddy what do you think about the EPA scrapping a plan to force refineries to blend in more biofuels.... hope you understand now that this isnt getting better for you

Highlighted
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,647
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Random thoughts

[ Edited ]

They are not hedges if you cashed them in.   

 

You are betting on the market coming back....... that is not marketing.

 

As I often suspect ........ what is called marketing on this forum is actually gambling...

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,129
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Random thoughts

sol1971    -  E P A    vs.     A  P  I     whom  do  you  think  is  holding  all  of  the  cards -  hint  pick  number  2 ,  due  to  K  street  funding  -  -- -- 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,409
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Random thoughts

I hedged the grain and captured the hedge.  I am not speculating on the market, but if I get a chance to rehedge it makes sense to do it.

 

Granted, a true hedge would have meant keeping the position until I sold the cash.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,647
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Random thoughts

Denial and semantics .

 

Futures trading has nothing to do with marketing.