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07-11-2018 06:33 AM - edited 07-11-2018 06:34 AM
Many market analysts have been picking a bottom in these prices about every other day for the last month or so. Yet, down we go. They have ALL been wrong.
The traders seem to want to inflict pain. They are succeeding.
I bought a gallon of milk yesterday for $1.28. It seems that the market wants grain farmers to feel the pain of the dairy guys. They are succeeding.
With these low prices for corn, E15 should be a lock. Time for the EPA and others to get busy and give us more clean burning, renewable fuel.
Gas prices are up. Oil companies are making a killing.
There should be absolutely NO price increases for ANY food products with the grain prices where they are at.
Many endusers should be making good money at these prices.
President Trump keeps winning and continues to keep many of his campaign promises. Let's hope he really wants the American farmer to succeed.
Perhaps the way out of this China trade thing is for China to actually buy more of our farm commodities......not less.
The world carryout in corn is the lowest since 2012, yet here we are with some of the lowest corn prices in that timeframe. However, the USDA at the first sign of an all-out price rally in grain will somehow find 300 million bushels of corn somewhere.
If this downturn in grain prices continues for very long, there is going to be thousands of older farmers retiring. There will be lots of farmland for sale.
If you are one of those farmers retiring, don't be the last one to have a farm sale. There won't be anyone left to buy your farm.
07-11-2018 07:16 AM
What traders are you talking about? There's no trading floor anymore... the market follows what the trend is doing...the falling prices are a direct result of the tariff our government is implementing... there's no fundamental reason why grains prices have fallen so much...do you really think that the EPA is gonna help farmers? if they did, there wouldn't be any one who lobbied for coal and oil running it...remember the tax cuts will benefit the rich permanently, while the middle class tax cut will change in a few years....
07-11-2018 07:17 AM
I "picked the bottom" when prices were much higher, I was wrong there`s apparently too many good to excellent crops out there. I see corn was down 6 and beans down 15 overnight, just like every other day, I reckon when they got us on the run it`ll go lower & longer than most think.
I`m not at all ready to throw in the towel. I do want to say though that "this" is farming now and in the future, boom bust cycles with a minority of boom times. If corn went to $5 next week, they`d be renting $400 land and buying $13,000 land like it`s goin out of style.
I saw a building with 5,000 Canadian feeder pigs yesterday, with their pretty orange ear tags, oh it was a long way from the border. But, those placing the pigs aren`t effected by the northern Iowa southern Minnesota cash hog prices. Probably the direction of cash grain farming too one day, "this" is just our "8 cent hog" day of reckoning.
07-11-2018 04:41 PM
Yeah, I cashed my hedges too early, too. Makes me feel foolish now. Now, I'm not crazy about getting in on either side of the trade. If we get a rally, I might sell some more but I am not counting on it.
07-11-2018 07:17 PM - edited 07-11-2018 07:21 PM
They are not hedges if you cashed them in.
You are betting on the market coming back....... that is not marketing.
As I often suspect ........ what is called marketing on this forum is actually gambling...
07-12-2018 12:34 AM
I hedged the grain and captured the hedge. I am not speculating on the market, but if I get a chance to rehedge it makes sense to do it.
Granted, a true hedge would have meant keeping the position until I sold the cash.