cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Ray G says farm ugly years in rearview mirror.

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/the-ugly-period-of-agriculture-is-behind-us-analyst-say...

 

I hope so, daddy needs a new thresher and mama could use a new car.  I think inflation concerns will be more noticable. the above trend yield weather may`ve come to a end, countries adjust "just in time" inventory policy. 

But what got us in this mess over-production 36 row planters, Air Tractors spraying for that extra 10 bushel, signs with a winged ear flying out of the field...it hasn`t been bad enough, long enough to fundamentally change that.  Fertilizer is cheaper for next year, Mother Nature is the dealer in this casino.

0 Kudos
11 Replies
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Ray G says farm ugly years in rearview mirror.

Strange to get “worst is behind us” speech in another “record setting year”

visions of second hand lions and another traveling salesman.  

Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Ray G says farm ugly years in rearview mirror.

I believe that "The Music Man" started the same way..."There's trouble here in River City"

Maybe I'll just wait a year or two to see if the "ugly years are behind us"

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Ray G says farm ugly years in rearview mirror.

Yea some of the ugly years are behind us...

Early eighties. Leading into the farm crisis.

The nineties. $1.50 corn $8 fat hogs.

That tail lasted to 2002.

Yep some ugly and tough times.

Hate to tell him it is cyclical and comes around every so often.

Even in those times there were a few farmers paying income tax.

Yes just a few but they were pretty silent. But new paint showed up on their place so it kind of showed.

Thst was before it was fashonable to never have anything paid for.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?  Yeah, right,  a month ago, no pundit was ever to be believed and now it's all "yellow brick road" and "rainbows".  How quickly they forget that last year you could sell corn for $3.95 occasionally $4.00.

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

Well, we have to hit $3.50 before we go to $4   Smiley Happy   Kruse is talking about a 170 nat average yield, if you just go from a 80,000 kernel bushel to a 90K bushel that`s takes a 243 yield down to 216 yield. That 10K fewer kernels is 27 bushel per acre.   So, taking a national yield down from the 180 to 170 really wouldn`t be that wild and a 170 national yield, then corn has a +$4 story, I would think.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

A lot of folks gettting carried away with Iowa yarditis it would seem. 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

Yeah, Kruse was firmly in the 300 bushel camp, cocky about selling early, now Royal Iowa is in a flash drought so he did this & that with the puts & calls and smelling like a rose, guess we shoulda been Comstock subscribers  Smiley Happy

Short of a derecho, NCIA should be either side of 200 corn and 60 beans.   A lot changed since the last day of the Pro Farmer Tour.

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

Beans are $9.43 @ ADM Des Moines .

They were open to recieve beans till noon today. I took them one.

They will be open Monday labor day to recieve beans too.

Seems odd to be open on a major holiday. 

Somebody sell something they didn't have with the idea it's out there and it'll magicly appear?

There will be plenty of lean times for many here in the droughty areas. 

I have friends that totally missed out on the 2012 runup of prices because of drought. Better prices don't help with little to sell.

It can actually make it quite worse.

Suppliers raise prices, mental health becomes touch and go.

It appears as though he was/is painting with too wide a brush.

Not much different than the usda brush every crop cycle.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn goes to $3.50 and "the ugly years are behind us"?

I wonder if the buyers are actually hand to mouth or if they are just nervous about what is to come.  If 50% of the corn in central Iowa was contracted to deliver this next few months the picture of insurance corn being disced could be disturbing

 

0 Kudos