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Buckley_HF
Senior Contributor

Re: Real Life

ECIN. Central IL corn is NOT in great shape. We have had to much moisture. Corn is stunted. Ponds are just drying out. And I'm not talking my county. I'm talking from Indiana border all the way to Peoria on RT 24 and down to Bloomington and champaign. IL at this point isn't going to carry crap for anyone else. I'm not saying the crops dead, but we are way behind with replant to go and now the worry about N loss. And I didn't even mention the bean crop because there's quite a bit not even in the ground yet...
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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Real Life

all this talk of flooding has us forgetting about the drought.

 

-75% of NE that's looking great now is in SEVERE drought category. so if it stops precipping their, not much subsoil to go after. they'll just have to turn on the irrigators until they have to be rationed.

 

-the west side of MN that wasn't flooded is in moderate to severe drought.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Real Life

c-x-1,   I am in Ohio.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Real Life

thx roarin'...I remember Archie Griffin when he played for the buckeyes in the 70's---they were my favorite college team!!

 

so y'all are looking great, crop-wise

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Real Life

Wow ida, I specifically said that I was not disagreeing with anyone. Honesty is never appreciated on this site, at least not by folks like you. Putitng me in the camp if NIA is a low blow. I said "for balance".

 

So, I will say again, most of IN has the best corn crop potential in all of history. As a state we have added millions of feet of tile, the genetics are better than ever, and now we have the best stands ever. IN could easily be 20 over trend on yield this year. Not because we are that good, but rather our trend is so bad!

 

Must mean we can make up for one county in the Garden of Eden called Iowa? I'll just take your word for it and take 8 mil off the planted acreage number, bring er down to 89, harvested of 84 x 154 = 13 Bil or so. Is this a bullish number or a bearish one. I DON"T KNOW and don't care.

 

For you guys to think corn is cheap at $7.35 local spot, or $5.50 new crop should give everyone pause. That is like saying $70 hogs are cheap....probably aren't.

 

I agree the USDA report was a joke, not the one in March, the one in January that overstated usage by half a bil bushels. Either way though the global trade will price corn accordingly, like it or not.

 

Having planted almost all of our corn in early June in 2011, like ECIN said, we have been there and done that. Corn avg that year for us was 178, not your 240, but not 0 either. We don't do PP but we are much further south than you guys.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Real Life

btw...cx is clearly young, impulsive, and fixated on the latest news. I am merely trying to warn him that such an approach is doomed to failure. It always looks very bad at the top, or the bottom. Success comes for those like Palouse and others that develop a strategy to anticipate those events. I focus on TIME. Pal on S&D. Thousands of ways to do it. Again, it is just a friendly warning is all.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Real Life

ok, thanks time!

 

just 1 other thing, time, fyi. It not's real clear you are just trying to warn as in help me. Your verbage and context seems also like a put down....not sure why you would want to do that???

 

don't believe I make a point to put contributors down in any way, except for a couple of incidents when I've defended myself for completely OVERT-unprovoked attacks. Otherwise, if i've inadvertantly put anyone down, my bad....don't think i have?

 

i do appreciate your point about a strategy to anticipate or capitalize on events- I definitely work towards that goal. My concept of most news is a story which comes after facts or truth has already come to light. I'm always assimilating information - some new and the rest an evolution of previous information and I only post information or "news" if you like, that i sense may help others on the site. 

 

timing is interesting, b/c just a couple hours before your post i was considering putting up a "signature"---something to the effect of linear time or "clock" time that we all experience is an illusion to enable us humans to experience our reality - otherwise, it would all be stacked and jumbled together (much more difficult to decipher) in the REALITY of vertical time.

      we've all experienced time "speeding up" or "slowing down" - this is chiefly my point here. Love to know your thoughts on that..........and i hope to live another 50 yrs.Smiley Happy 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Real Life

The way it sounds in Indiana the crop has never looked better and that`s great, you folks out there have had the shaft many times when us Iowegians were in the clover, so it is your turn and I`m happy for you.  I don`t suspect many of you will come out to Iowa and bid against me at farm sales with your windfall this year so I give a honest assessment of the disaster in the NC part of Ia and S Mn to don`t be so quick to pull the trigger on grain sales because it isn`t all wonderful out here.  As a matter of fact I have never seen it this wet and this delayed in planting ever and the forecast isn`t good.

 

How much acres will be lost? How much yield will be lost? What will the national yield be? What will corn price be next fall? Where will the sunday night trade open? How high can corn go without choking off demand?  ...I don`t have a clue, it`s all above my pay grade, if I knew I`d be sitting on a yacht in Boca. All I can tell you is what I see in my fields and what I see out my pickup windshield.  And it ain`t pretty.

 

Just my observation on corn price is cash doesn`t like to be much over $7 and will take any excuse to go below that.  For some reason Ribeyes and chops can`t seem to move at the needed higher prices in the supermarket to sustain the higher corn price.  IMO that really should change, consumers have had a bargain on food prices since they layed the rail, they don`t balk at buying $50,000 cars and there`s always a 45 minute wait at Applebees in the evening.  So you wouldn`t think paying $4/lb for hamburger instead of $3.09 would be such a big deal. but it is what it is.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Real Life

Time,  If c-x-1 remembers Archie Griffin playing for the Buckeyes, he is older than you are thinking he is..........   Go Buckeyes!..............O-H.......

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buckfarmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Real Life

IO
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