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Honored Advisor

Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

There is a great quote from Redsteele on the turn-around-tuesday thread about his marketing for the year and relationship to values of land and expenses.

 

 Reading that and remembering accusations that this site is always bullish reminds me of an old "truism"------- A fan cheers for a team he wants to win but he bets on a team he thinks will win.  The two are quite different.

 

We all expect the market to follow the fundamentals we see so vividly and we voice those opinions---------- I would guess the same folks were bearish fundamentally when they had to drive around and smell the rotting piles to get home a few years back.  My bet is they marketed grain in both situations.

 

Real Marketing is a serious business decision one does without the emotion of "cheering"------------- Thanks for the reminder Red.

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6 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

Excellent post. There are a lot of cheerleaders on this site. Don't know if we go up or down from here, but know where my money is positioned. Bulls/Bears get to eat. Pigs get slaughterd, Always been that way and always will be. We are going to the field Thursday. Doing some seeding and such. Anybody else ready to roll.

?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

Sw,
nice post. Take it further , marketing has the same emotions as trading hope, greed and fear.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

Hey SW, to shake your fist at the politicians, weather, markets, bureaucrats, btos, those you buy from and those you sell to, is something farmers have always done and is quite healthy.  A couple years ago it seemed everyone thought they were smart and were suckered by gurus to forward sell corn for $4.75, then Brazil and Russia burned up and it became evident that even we won`t have the "big crop" that everyone had thought.  Then the cheerleading came loudly from the $4.75 crowd, "I hope corn drops to 2 bucks!!!", that was offensive to those of us that didn`t fall for all the negative rhetoric, but ultimately living well is the best revenge Smiley Happy

 

I`m always bullish and I`m always in the "Greed stage" because I raise corn and gosh darn it I like money, you can`t get enough of it and it sucks not to have any Smiley Happy  That doesn`t mean that I never sell, it`s just I want it to be high when I do sell. Being a self admitted poor marketer, I need occasional droughts to bail me out.

 

The reason everyone is such a cheerleader these days is the stakes have never been higher with inputs and competition.  Everyday you wake up, you have to be faster than the slowest gazelle or you`ll get eaten and faster than the slowest lion or you`ll starve.  I mean one dry spell at the wrong time this summer and we`ll have $9 corn, a couple rain showers at the "wrong/right" time and we`ll have corn with a "3" in front of it.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

BA Deere,     Great post!    I would say that you have hit that proverbial nail on the head......

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Senior Advisor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

Good morning ! Pretty morning here in East Central Indiana --A bomby 27 degrees -- all ready and it's just 7:49 , lol

 

But really - sometimes -- I just can't come up with the right word to use , this morning is one of them - But Greed ??? I really don't think so , I looked up the official definition -- and I quote : Selfish desire beyond reason .

My point is , if you look  at the information we have received , prior to the report , then look at what the market was doing the week of the report -- ( going up -- NOT down , like 2 or 3 cents a day ) It was telling us that there was a better chance of a bull than a bear report . I'm NO marketing master !!!!!!!!!!  BUT look at the traders ,or who ever that make there living in the marketing business , they have info.-- charts , -- weather - you name it , and they miss the report this far ?

But to go back to greed - desire beyond reason ? I think it was closer to a calculated risk , I was NOT looking for   10 or 12 dollar corn , then that -- to me would have been -- greed -- but a 25 or 40 cent bump up was with reason , any  way to me . lol

I had sold part of my corn for 7.50 - then relied on good solid info . To make my - how would I word this ? Oh I know -- F - up for not selling alittle more -- lol

 

One other thing , have been trying to figure out how they come up with bus. in the bins , then it hit me ! They (USDA ) are a start number and then figure it down to work out - so they came up short --where is all that corn -- they asked -- where can we come up with the final number to work out ??  Hey I know - the farmers must have it in the bin !  lol   And that has to be where they come up with that number --

 

Well better get going

 

Everybody have a great day

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Real Marketing and cheering----- not the same.

Gio I see the point.  But I never got comfortable with my marketing until I got beyond those two.

 

U are right, though, those two drive the traking ranges of the market.

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