Record Soybean Yield Projected

[marketeye]

From your friends at the Commodity Weather Group, a record U.S. soybean yield is in the crosshairs.

"Favorable summer moisture profile in most areas and above average crop ratings at national level support high yield. Only Great Lakes and parts of Deep South have seen prolonged periods of drier weather this season.
Dryness in past two weeks has led to draw down in topsoil moisture, but projected rains in next week for many areas. Current expectation limits stress to well under 1/4 of Midwest soy during balance of August pod set/fill. Record U.S. Soy Yield of 49 bu/ac Projected

16-30 day guidance also supportive of late August/early September rains to aid late filling period. Analysis assumes that needed rains reach C. IL/C. IN/C. OH and much of IA/ MN this week; record U.S. yield would be unlikely if these rains severely falter. Years with most similar crop ratings ranged from 5% to 17% above trend, including +9% in most similar ‘92 case. Largest problem spots expected in AL, TX, OH, MI, NY, and PA."

What say you?

Mike

[ECIN]

LMAO Mike - Thats a good one !  But this is the marketing section - Anything from Commodity Weather should be posted in the Humor section !

[Blacksandfarmer]

We have the potential for a nice corn and soybean crop on our farm. The next 2 weeks are critical though. We will need a little more rain to make a big crop happen.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

If one believes the report, it might be useful to sell beans on any bounce.  If one coes not believe the report, it might be good to buy beans on any dip.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

One always wonders who is doing any marketing in here and who is commenting but not acting, and why.  

[hardnox]

Rough seasonal, even in a good crop year is failry firm in august and then heading into the harvest low after labor day.

I'm not taking any action on that tendency though.

My total SWAG is that this report may not be as bearish as feared- there's no objective measure for soy yields on 8/1 and limited on corn.

Particularly in an election year I think USDA may be hesitant to tack a big subjective add on yiled at this time. If the pod counts are high in sep and the hyields are rolling in in Oct it will be hard to deny.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Cm

It is determined to post this way...yesterday evening,  they have exploded since that 4.25 inch rain last week.

[lsc76cat]

Hobby - how many acres did you lose to flooding from those heavy rains is South Podunk country?

[ECIN]

Dang thats one Hilly field !!!!!! Here all this time I tought you Lived in Iowa ! Looks more like your farming down by Ky -    No wonder you have a fleet of Tract Tractors !  lol   Nice beans too .   Mine would be lucky to be a 1/3 that size -

[hardnox]

Doublecrop only amount to 5-7% of acres but people tell me that they've never looked better across the DC belt.

I guess 10 bpa above average on 5% is still half a bushel nationally- a bushel is a bushel.

Counting chickens a bit early as Sep is the more critical month for those but people tell me they're off to a great start- catching up with the full season.

I imagine there were probably more wildcat DC beans planted in the plains after wheat, no?

[Hobbyfarmer]

Isc, no flooding here, got up to the top of bank full. Ponding under the canopy though.

One third of my beans don't look this good. Had good pollination in the corn, beans look to be ok too.

Hard Knox, saw quite a few double crop beans in northern Kansas.along hwy 36 yesterday, 70% probably will not get the seed cost back if they were purchased, let alone the drilling and harvest  costs.

Edit to fix auto correct