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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Refreshing honesty from da boots

from agweb: are we surprised? emergence problems - immaturity - variability all over the board - yield POTential dissappointing...Hmmm.

Cool Temperatures Stunt Crop Development

August 18, 2014
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
 

Scouts on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour have been seeing some great-looking crops but weather challenges have kept them from being exceptional.

 

Groups of crop scouts left Columbus, Ohio and Sioux Falls, S.D., this morning to kick off the 2014 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. The tour, which is in its 22nd year, serves as a first-hand assessment of the corn and soybean crops in seven Midwestern states.

 

 

Chip Flory, Pro Farmer editorial director and host of daily radio program Market Rally, is heading up the tour’s Western leg. In Nebraska, Flory says, the crops looks like what you’d expect to see.

"We’ve seen some evidence of emergence problems," he says. "In irrigated fields, the maturity might be just a touch behind. But, I’m not worried about the maturity of the corn crop. It’s going to make it just fine."

 

The rainy conditions at planting and cool summer have definitely affected crop conditions. "The cool temperatures we’ve had have slowed the crops down," Flory says. "We just don’t know how this combination of weather will finish out this corn crop."

 

Flory says many fields looked good from the road, but when they pulled samples, the yield potential was disappointing. "We’ve seen variability within fields and variability between fields," he says. "You need consistency to get an exceptional crop, and consistency may be what we are missing this year."

Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor and the director of the crop tour’s Eastern leg, says immature crops were prevalent on the route he scouted today. "Maturity was all over the board," he says. "We say corn that was late milk to early dough stage."

 

While the crop is behind, Grete says, the crop should finish out the season just fine. "There is good yield potential if it gets to the finish line," he says.

Soybeans on both legs of the tour were variable, Flory and Grete say.

 

I have to love the "but", "if" and "I'm not worried" statements.......................................................

...and if potential is dissappointing - this reads to me - there's not the even possibility for the "exceptional" crop "marketed" to us  since May/June by NASS & most other news/experts...wow, they're good....!....on day 1 @ least - lets see what they find tomorrow.......on pins and needles here.

 

 

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10 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

how many more times can they tell us it's a gonna be a record crop before seeds even go in the ground?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xos9oOKdLKw

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wife and I saw them in Houston last month - musically talented Smiley Wink

Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

First day was a wash. Crop no better than last year

NE and MN will be down. IA flat. So it comes down to IL and IN and their horsepower

160X80 is 12.8

Also. Not sure I believe the OH number. IMO is will be lower by Jan. many comments on that side of the cot belt being a bit behind and dry. Means tip back and shallow kernels to come
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IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

Mizzou, you and I don't agree on much but I think we can both agree that the ProFarmer Tour doesn't mean squat.  It never has.  They just aren't able to sample a wide enough representation of the nation to get an accurate estimate.  It all depends on where they decide to stop.  Heck if they stop a mile or two different one way or the other they could have a 50 bu swing if they happened into the right or wrong field.  It just doesn't mean much of anything.  It is more of a media circus and for entertainment value than anything.  The tour always samples heavy in central Illinois and that area appears to have a whopper of a crop coming.  PF could come out with a really stupid number for Illinois.

 

I am still not on board with your 12.8 but I have come down to 13.7.  Just too much variability in weather the past four weeks in big producing areas.  We are getting real dry here and are losing some bushels.  Drive 7 miles in most any direction and you can find pockets that have had rain and look pretty darn good. 

Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

I've always considered the PF tour to be nothing more than a paid vacation for some.  I mean how else would they be able to get mud on their boots or justify new hats every year?

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

Shaggy, would you rather have a crop tour done by USDA or real farmers? It would be nice if they scouted outside the very heart of the cornbelt.

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

Don't even need to think about that one BSF, the actual farmers but have them scout crops other than their own.  Agreed, they need to leave the heart to get a good analysis.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

 
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

You don't think it is a representable sample that can just be multiplied by an acreage number deemed appropriate/ nessasary to arrive at the predetermined result?
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Refreshing honesty from da boots

If it were saying the right things it's validity rating would be higher.  Right??

 

It is not a way to measure the crop but it does tell us something.  And it appears at least to be random and not just cherry picking.

 

We are computing crops at a size that needs every acre to preform.  Variability is a huge observation.  And it follows what we have been seeing in weather patterns for two months.

 

Out in the fringe where 40+% of this crop will come from, Nebraska is dealing with restricted water use.  Meaning less gallons = less bushels.  Kansas the same.  texas the same.  How often are the conditions in the dakotas and minnesota ideal across that area.

 

point is ---- if you arent perfect in the I states it does tell us something.

 

 

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