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Senior Advisor

Report: Stocks vs Acres

It's hard to say what the reaction to a report will be at this time of year. As has been noted the market reactionis often counter to the numbers and can last up to two weeks before moving the other way.

 

The only significant numbers will be stocks and how they impact minimal stocks for corn or beans as already predicted. If stocks were truly ample it would be nothing but confirmation one way or another. And minimal swings now could cause outsized reactions.

 

Acreage predictions are truly speculative and subject to weather. Not important at this stage. Spring planting weather will be the guidepost. Watching the monsoon over the PNW and knowing it's headed fr the upper Midwest is worrisone.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Report: Stocks vs Acres

Palouser....... I think that you are right..... What ever the acre # is the market will have to encourage acres back and forth before the planters go in the ground..... My guess is we come up short on beans but who knows?.......

The fact that we have sold off going into this report lends me to believe that there will be a lot of buyers if things open down tomorrow off a bearish report...... p-oed

 

PS..... Yes I agree that the stocks report is bigger than acres.......maybe......:~)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Good wheat going to be significant premium

to the feed wheat ( could easy be a $5 to $7 per bu spread this year ).

( feed wheat at $4 and decent wheat towards $11 )

 

And a bunch of dryland wheat in the SW has been adjusted now ( 99% of it 0ed out, btw ).

 

Wheat deal looks pretty short of supply ( granted there could be a "miracle crop" somewhere on the globe yet for 011 ).

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Good wheat going to be significant premium

Rightone, where did you hear that a bunch of dryland wheat,  99%  in SW has been zeroed out already??  Thats interesting, think that would get some press.  Think that area will expand to more acres destroyed.?

thanks

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Good wheat going to be significant premium

Wouldn't $4.00 feed wheat be pretty competitive with $5.50 corn? $6.00 corn? anyone know? Also what do you expect to cause so much supply of feed wheat / or shortage of mill quality wheat?

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