Futures may not control the physical, but over the years many end users, processors and even producers have hedged on the board. That connection is probably weakening. The typical seasonal hedge has meant $25-$45 per acre to me in the past, but not any more.
From what I'm told, farmers who were short producers this year have bolted the bin door. They will not be selling until/unless they need the cash flow (and they are OK now because they are delivering grain sold last spring against a cash contract). Farmers are likely to be very tight holders of grain this year. In that circumstance, they are not likely to pay any attention to the board.
The corn went in the bin dry and in good quality. There is nothing pushing corn belt farmers to ship.
