Ending stocks is the be all and end all in this report - as I think we all suspected. It confirmed that rationing has not taken place as COF and ethanol production margins and production had already indicated.
It really doesn't matter about wheat numbers as it is basically feed and will be carried by the corn situation. On the other hand, the squeeze between southern drought and northern wetness makes acres of quality wheat suspect. As I write there is a powerful stream of moisture and cold going over my head and headed there, and predicted to continue.
The surprise regarding cotton acres may have it's basis in the cost of harvesting machinery vs getting in and out. Cotton farmers were burned by low prices and sold machinery. Getting back in and having the run last only one year may be hard for farmers already burned by the fluctuations the last few years. I base this on comments by a friend quite familiar with the situation in the delta area.
The big area of concern is trend yields in corn and possible Chinese demand in the future. We could all be on tenter hooks for a long time. While the future is crucial speculation the ending stocks are probably dialed in enough that it is a baseline for planning - or speculating.
